Gallup: Voters Feel Better About Economy, Security...and Race Relations Under Trump vs. Obama

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Posted: Jan 28, 2020 1:05 PM
Gallup: Voters Feel Better About Economy, Security...and Race Relations Under Trump vs. Obama

Let's start with the good news, and there's plenty of it in the latest polling -- beyond the top line results we discussed in our earlier post on the Washington Post/ABC News poll.  Close your eyes for a moment and pretend you know nothing about the 2020 presidential election, aside from two facts: First, that there's an incumbent running for re-election.  Second, that the mood of the electorate is reflected by these numbers on top issues.  What would you conclude from this data?  There's little wonder that Team Trump is touting Gallup's latest:


Public sentiment is up on every single metric, compared to when Barack Obama left office -- including substantial double-digit improvements on prosperity and security (voters approve of the Soleimani strike by a significant margin, despite loud media criticism).  Even race relations and the standing of minorities in American society are being viewed more optimistically.  Think about that.  And juxtapose it with the conventional wisdom and the media's coverage of the Trump era.  To say there's a disconnect is a distinct understatement.  As for the thought experiment I posed above, the inescapable, obvious, unavoidable lesson one would reasonably draw from these across-the-board up-pointing arrows would be that the incumbent president is virtually a shoo-in, with nine months to go until the next election -- right?  And there's no doubt that these conditions, should they remain roughly stable, will be very significant assets to the Trump campaign down the stretch.  And yes, despite being mired in a wall-to-wall impeachment trial, the president's approval rating has been rather resilient. Also via the Trump headquarters:


And as we've seen in other polling series, the president's standing against top Democratic rivals in (increasingly relevant) hypothetical head-to-head surveys is enhanced, any way you slice it:


And those are national match-ups.  It's a pretty safe bet that in the dozen or so states that will determine the 2020 victor, Trump is even more competitive.  Including swing states like...Delaware?


The Biden blowout is no surprise, but peep those other numbers.  Nobody should be under any illusions about deep blue Delaware going red in the fall, but if they're experiencing a purpling, that might suggest ripples elsewhere.  Now, is it possible that looming impeachment developments could dent Trump and harm his prospects?  Sure.  But are people burned out on that entire saga?  Several signs suggest so:


The bad news in all of this, from Trump's perspective?  Roughly 70 percent of all voters are satisfied with the state of the economy and homeland security, the two pillars of overall political contentment.  Yet the president presiding over these realities is stuck in the mid-40's on overall approval.  That's not lethal to his chances, but he's much weaker and more vulnerable than he should be.  The stupid, exhausting drama matters.  The biggest obstacle to four more years for Trump, too often, is Trump himself.  Democratic voters formally start the process of choosing his competitor in six days.  And away we go...