Polls: As Impeachment Approaches, Trump Leads Every Major 2020 Democrat, and Voters Are Feeling Great About the Economy

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Posted: Dec 18, 2019 9:01 AM
Polls: As Impeachment Approaches, Trump Leads Every Major 2020 Democrat, and Voters Are Feeling Great About the Economy

With formal impeachment fast approaching -- and precious few Democratic defections, including among red district 2018 'majority makers' -- most of the national polling has shown support for impeaching and removing President Trump either stagnant or falling.  Based on previous data, this phenomenon is particularly pronounced in swing states and battleground districts.  We reviewed one relevant survey earlier in the week, which showed a pretty solid majority had turned against impeachment as the proper course of action under the circumstances.  CNN, a rabidly pro-impeachment outlet, has been forced to report on its own in-house poll showing impeachment dropping underwater.  The trend is clear:


Some network personalities are apparently struggling to grapple with these results:


Count me among the 37 percent who say it'll be a wash, and likely a distant memory, by election day.  Everyone knows how this will play out.  But as he prepares to become just the third US president ever to be impeached (Nixon resigned, preempting the process from playing out further), President Trump's political fortunes are relatively ascendant.  The latest Quinnipiac poll, whose surveys have been jammed with brutal results for the president over many months, has tracked Trump's job approval as tying its highest level in the series (albeit still at a fairly paltry 43/52).  The economic numbers, however, are simply outstanding:


As for Trump's standing against the 2020 Democratic field, here's what USA Today/Suffolk just found as part of the survey we flagged on Monday:


The president is leading all five potential challengers, pretty comfortably so against Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg.  Joe Biden is, unsurprisingly, most competitive -- with Bernie Sanders not far behind.  Biden is the only competitor even cracking into the 40's.  But the opposition party's candidates theoretically have higher ceilings than the incumbent.  It is not great news at all for Trump that in spite of the eye-popping economic figures measured by Quinnipiac, he's still stuck at 43 percent approval.  And it's also a red flag when a sitting officeholder consistently polls well below 50 percent, as Trump does.  Even with these hypothetical leads, he's stuck five-to-seven points short of a majority.   A "normal" president would be waltzing to re-election.  Nevertheless, looking at those USA Today results, you'd rather be Trump than anyone else.  Finally, because I opened with a sobering counterpoint from the newest Fox News poll in my previous polling post, I'll close with something similar here:


Pick your preferred poll, partisans.  I'll note that the Fox data is not as favorable as USA Today/Suffolk, but Trump has made gains in this series, too.  His strength has increased during impeachment.  What, if anything, that will mean several months from now is anybody's guess.  But my suspicion is that we'll all be off fighting over new controversies pretty quickly.  And this level is stability amid wildly unstable news cycles is pretty wild: