This is the best major national poll for Trump in weeks, even though his own level of support has actually receded by a point in the series. Hillary held a four-point lead in Quinnipiac's last offering, an advantage that is now down to two points -- within the margin of error. Since we've been feeding you a steady diet of worrisome news and polling for Trump (based on relentlessly negative data), I feel like we kind of owe you this one. Glimmers of hope:
Democrat Hillary Clinton has 42 percent to Republican Donald Trump's 40 percent - too close to call - as American voters say neither candidate would be a good president and that the campaign has increased hatred and prejudice in the nation, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. This compares to results of a June 1 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Clinton edging Trump 45 - 41 percent. When third party candidates are added to today's survey, Clinton gets 39 percent with Trump at 37 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4 percent.
They're both in the 30's when the Libertarians and Greens are included. Trump, who blasted a new Washington Post/ABC News survey this week, is celebrating this one online:
New Q poll out- we are going to win the whole deal- and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! #Trump2016 pic.twitter.com/dL5ahNcwZb
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2016
The demographic breakdowns are familiar: Women, non-whites and young people heavily favor her, while men, whites, and seniors break strongly for him. Each party is attracting roughly the same percentage of its base voters, as independents are split. As ever, these are two highly unpopular candidates, each with a negative rating of 57 percent:
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Both top candidates get negative favorability ratings, 34 - 57 percent for Trump and 37 - 57 percent for Clinton. Trump will not be a good president, American voters say 58 - 35 percent. Clinton will not be a good president, voters say 53 - 43 percent. American voters say 58 - 33 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president than Trump; 53 - 33 percent that she is more intelligent and 46 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards. But voters say 45 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 49 - 43 percent that he is a stronger leader.
She's beating him on moral standards, but he's got the edge on honesty. What a year. And here's the mixed bag of issue preference data from Q's numbers:
Q-poll on the issues: pic.twitter.com/uDJkHbu3MH
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 29, 2016
One of the silver linings of the past month for Trump supporters has been the trend that swing state polls have mostly been more competitive than the nationwide numbers might indicate. A new string of battleground polls from Ballotpedia look outlier-ish for now, but would be a five-alarm fire for the Trump campaign if they're capturing the emergence of a trend (via CNN):
#BREAKING
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 29, 2016
GE Clinton leads Trump in...
Michigan by 17%
Florida +14%
Pennsylvania +14%
NC +10%
Ohio +9%
Virginia +7%
Iowa +4%
Ballotpedia
What we know for certain is that Trump continues to totally cede the air wars to Clinton in these key states, possibly because he has very little cash on hand. Forgiving $50 million in campaign debt was a big step for sure, but the competition is on, and only one side is competing -- a very risky proposition. Here's the final score from June, a month in which Clinton grew her lead:
And heading into July:
Ads reserved next week, per CMAG:
— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) June 27, 2016
Team Clinton: $13 million
Team Trump: $0
Tick tock...
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