The cardinal rule is not to get too wrapped up with the early voting totals. They’re hardly a compass for what will happen on Election Day. Fair enough, but when something that has never happened in Nevada for Republicans occurs in these tabulations, it’s worth taking note.
Don’t get the champagne ready—keep that locked away until the race is called. What’s happening in Nevada with the early voting has reportedly never occurred in the Harry Reid machine era. When it’s that unprecedented, even the local politicos note that this could be a sign of trouble ahead for Democrats. Still, there are lots of votes to count and a long way to go, but Democrats need to make some progress in Clark (via The Nevada Independent):
Not in the Reid Machine era, I don’t think. https://t.co/1ynlrY9eka
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 22, 2024
New SOS update shows that Rs have taken the lead statewide in Nevada, by 8,000 votes or 3 percent.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 22, 2024
The Clark firewall is only 4,000 votes, not nearly enough to head off rural losses.
I'll update the blog soon, but here are the numbers:https://t.co/zs5Aboy2LI
Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.
It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.
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The Rs have a nearly 2-point turnout advantage, and nearly 250,000 votes have been cast. That's probably not too far from a fifth of the total vote.
It's too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.
Far from over, too early to call, lots of mail still to come, but if Dems don't build that Clark firewall...
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Is something tremendous cooking in Nevada? It's going to be close. We shall find out.
GOP is surging in Nevada.
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 22, 2024
After the third day of early voting and including mail, GOP is up almost 8K voters. In Clark, which is heavily Democrat, Ds have outvoted Rs by less than 5K votes.
GOP is winning Washoe too.
If this keeps up, Trump will win Nevada easily. pic.twitter.com/y5oCJHyN09
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