A brand new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Hillary Clinton soaring to a (51/39) lead over Donald Trump in a general election head-to-head, a 14-point swing toward the presumptive Democratic nominee since May. Based on the data, Trump's troubles are rooted in familiar weaknesses:
WaPo/ABC poll: Trump's 12-point deficit driven by horrific #'s among women, young voters & nonwhites: pic.twitter.com/YNYLn8tbVd
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 27, 2016
@guypbenson to be fair, his numbers among men and among whites in that poll are also weak compared to Romney's 2012 performance.
— Ramesh Ponnuru (@RameshPonnuru) June 27, 2016
The 2016 GOP standard-bearer trails among women by 23 points, young voters by 20 points, and nonwhite voters by 62 points -- underperforming Mitt Romney's poor performance in 2012. Nearly two-thirds of voters polled say Trump is unqualified to be president, with the controversial billionaire trailing Mrs. Clinton (61/28) on the measure of presidential temperament. Fully 70 percent of respondents say the prospect of a Trump presidency triggers "anxiety;" a bare majority says the same of a Clinton victory, highlighting her own weakness as a candidate. Sixty-six percent of those polled believe Trump's provocative comments about women and minorities are "unfairly biased," and believe Trump "stands against" their values by a 20-point spread. Trump ripped the survey results on Twitter, citing a heavily-Democratic sample skew:
The "dirty" poll done by @ABC @washingtonpost is a disgrace. Even they admit that many more Democrats were polled. Other polls were good.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 26, 2016
Conservatives spent a lot of time and energy seeking to "unskew" what turned out to be broadly accurate public polling in the last presidential cycle, so it's tempting to reject Trump's complaints out of hand. In this case, though, he may have a point. The survey's partisan breakdown is a whopping D+12, which more than doubles the Democrats' turnout advantage from 2012. Even given Trump's historic unpopularity, that doesn't seem very realistic, especially considering how unpopular his opponent is. The Post addressed this significant sample shift, reporting that the uptick in Democratic ID "accounts for less than half of Clinton's gains in the new poll." Trump also asserts that other polls are "good." About that:
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Trump has a point re: WaPo poll sample. D+12 a real stretch. As for assertion that other polls are "good"... pic.twitter.com/ncFITk7qlr
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 27, 2016
She's held a lead in 21 consecutive national surveys, with Trump failing to break 40 percent support in more than half of those. It should be noted, however, that NBC News and the Wall Street Journal also posted new numbers over the weekend, which show a much more modest Clinton advantage. The good news for Trump is that NBC/WSJ's five-point gap is quite manageable in comparison with some of the double-digit deficits churned out in various polls over the last few weeks. The bad news is that he's still losing, that Hillary increased her lead over the last data point in that series, and this piece of context:
To put Clinton's +5 lead in the new NBC/WSJ into perspective, Obama was ahead of Romney by +3 in June '12 poll pic.twitter.com/jJocgAWst6
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) June 26, 2016
Meanwhile, here's an important ray of hope for Trump supporters:
Right now, the battleground state polls aren't as good for Clinton as the national polls, with Florida being a potential exception.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2016
Absolutely true. Then again, Trump's presence in the race also appears to have put a handful of "safe" red states in play, including Utah, Arizona and Kansas (caution: Zogby alert). The billionaire has waved away concerns about his poor polling, contending that he hasn't really started his campaign yet. Hillary Clinton has, however, and is seeking to press her advantage as Trump dithers. Perhaps the best news in the last few weeks for Trump fans came several days ago when his campaign announced that he will be forgiving $50 million in loans he's made to his campaign. That's a desperately-needed sign of fundraising seriousness. I'll leave you with this:
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