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New Poll: Hillary Breaks 50, Leads Trump By 12 Points

A brand new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Hillary Clinton soaring to a (51/39) lead over Donald Trump in a general election head-to-head, a 14-point swing toward the presumptive Democratic nominee since May.  Based on the data, Trump's troubles are rooted in familiar weaknesses:


The 2016 GOP standard-bearer trails among women by 23 points, young voters by 20 points, and nonwhite voters by 62 points -- underperforming Mitt Romney's poor performance in 2012. Nearly two-thirds of voters polled say Trump is unqualified to be president, with the controversial billionaire trailing Mrs. Clinton (61/28) on the measure of presidential temperament.  Fully 70 percent of respondents say the prospect of a Trump presidency triggers "anxiety;" a bare majority says the same of a Clinton victory, highlighting her own weakness as a candidate.  Sixty-six percent of those polled believe Trump's provocative comments about women and minorities are "unfairly biased," and believe Trump "stands against" their values by a 20-point spread.  Trump ripped the survey results on Twitter, citing a heavily-Democratic sample skew:

Conservatives spent a lot of time and energy seeking to "unskew" what turned out to be broadly accurate public polling in the last presidential cycle, so it's tempting to reject Trump's complaints out of hand.  In this case, though, he may have a point.  The survey's partisan breakdown is a whopping D+12, which more than doubles the Democrats' turnout advantage from 2012.  Even given Trump's historic unpopularity, that doesn't seem very realistic, especially considering how unpopular his opponent is.  The Post addressed this significant sample shift, reporting that the uptick in Democratic ID "accounts for less than half of Clinton's gains in the new poll."  Trump also asserts that other polls are "good."  About that:


She's held a lead in 21 consecutive national surveys, with Trump failing to break 40 percent support in more than half of those.  It should be noted, however, that NBC News and the Wall Street Journal also posted new numbers over the weekend, which show a much more modest Clinton advantage. The good news for Trump is that NBC/WSJ's five-point gap is quite manageable in comparison with some of the double-digit deficits churned out in various polls over the last few weeks. The bad news is that he's still losing, that Hillary increased her lead over the last data point in that series, and this piece of context:

Meanwhile, here's an important ray of hope for Trump supporters:

Absolutely true.  Then again, Trump's presence in the race also appears to have put a handful of "safe" red states in play, including UtahArizona and Kansas (caution: Zogby alert). The billionaire has waved away concerns about his poor polling, contending that he hasn't really started his campaign yet. Hillary Clinton has, however, and is seeking to press her advantage as Trump dithers. Perhaps the best news in the last few weeks for Trump fans came several days ago when his campaign announced that he will be forgiving $50 million in loans he's made to his campaign.  That's a desperately-needed sign of fundraising seriousness. I'll leave you with this:


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