New Poll Has Trump Tied In...Maine?

Posted: Sep 20, 2016 5:15 PM

"Yeah, I think Maine will be a toss-up state this year," said nobody ever.*

As if anyone needed proof that the 2016 election is absolutely bizarre, please see this new Maine People's Resource Center (a liberal think tank) poll that has Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied with 37 percent of the vote each. This is a slight improvement from a poll from last week that had Trump within the margin of error behind Clinton.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polled at 11 percent, and Green candidate Jill Stein came in at five. In Maine's 2nd congressional district, Trump has a comfortable lead over Clinton, meaning that he will likely get at least one electoral vote from the Pine Tree State. Maine is one of two states that awards electoral college votes by congressional district, and the overall winner of the state gets an additional two votes.

Obama won Maine by 15 points in 2012 and by 17 points in 2008. The last time a Republican won Maine was 1988.

This, of course, begs the question: What the hell is going on this year? Maine should not be a toss-up. Neither should Georgia. Yet, here we are, for precisely opposite reasons.

I've written before that I believe that Maine's Democrats, who are overwhelmingly Bernie Sanders supporters, are reluctant to switch their allegiances to Clinton for the general elections, and I believe this poll is another sign that Maine is going to be a much tougher win for Clinton than anyone anticipated.

*This author is a proud Maine native and deeply loves her home state, despite its bizarre political leanings.