New Polls Show Ohio Governor's Race Is Neck and Neck

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Posted: Nov 01, 2018 8:30 AM
New Polls Show Ohio Governor's Race Is Neck and Neck

Two recent polls show the Ohio governor’s race between Republican Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray is neck and neck.

A Baldin Wallace University poll conducted from October 19-27 found different results depending on how the question was asked. Between Cordray and DeWine, the Democrat had a slight advantage, 42.2 percent to 41.1 percent, but that changed when third party candidates Travis M. Irvine (Libertarian) and Constance Gadell-Newton of the Green Party were included. In this instance, DeWine had a small lead, 39.4 percent to 38.8 percent.

In an Emerson College survey conducted from October 26-28, Cordray had a 3-point lead over DeWine, 49 percent to 46 percent. Females leaned more heavily towards Cordray, 52 percent to 41 percent, while the reverse was true for males, with 51 percent favoring DeWine compared to 46 percent supporting Cordray.

FiveThirtyEight breaks it down: 

The Lite forecast, which uses only national and state polling, gives Cordray a 5 in 9 chance of winning, while the Classic version, which adds election fundamentals to the polls, gives both candidates about a 1 in 2 shot of winning. But the Deluxe version of the forecast, which adds in the views of expert handicappers to the polls and fundamentals, assigns DeWine a 5 in 9 chance of victory. So it’s sort of a “Choose Your Own Buckeye Adventure,” with all three versions pointing to a tight race.