Monmouth University is out with a fresh poll that is likely to cause heartburn among Democrats who may already be anxious about how well President Trump's State of the Union Address was received among the vast majority of viewers, including roughly 70 percent of political independents. We'll dive into the new survey's findings below, but here's a key top line result that will boost Republican morale. We've seen this pattern developing in other polling, and the trend is now undeniable. Tax reform is becoming popular:
That's a 21-point net positive swing since December. There's more:
Extraordinary stat from new Monmouth poll showing support for #TaxReform spiking from 26/47 (-21) in Dec to 44/44 (even) now: Only 24% of respondents believe their taxes will drop, and a plurality think their taxes will *rise.* In reality, 80%! will see a cut. Much room to grow. pic.twitter.com/OZySjG1Cp1— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 31, 2018
Again, these humongous gains in public perception appear to be almost entirely attributable to the effects of the corporate side of new tax law. More than two-thirds of respondents think their own taxes will either go up or stay the same, when in fact 80 percent of them will experience a tax cut this year, including 91 percent of the middle class. If the GOP is diligent about directing people's attention to the inarguable numbers, there will be millions upon millions of happily surprised Americans discovering their effective pay raises over the coming weeks. I'm told the White House and Congressional Republicans have plans to aggressively message on this point, as well they should. A few more takeaways from this survey's internals, virtually all of which will be welcomed by Republicans:
(1) The generic Congressional ballot has swung dramatically, from D+15 to just D+2 in this series. These numbers can be volatile, and it's still early in the cycle, but smug Democrats banking on an easy landslide victory in November might be getting a little antsy. Three of the last four national generic ballots have pegged Democrats' lead in the low-to-mid single digits.
(2) President Trump's approval rating in December's Monmouth poll was an abysmal (32/56). In late January, it was up to (42/50). That's still not great by any stretch, but it's a substantial improvement. Four of the last five nationwide surveys show Trump's job approval rising into the 40's.
(3) A majority of respondents (50/45) said they're at least somewhat optimistic about the policies Trump will pursue as president, and 55 percent said the state of the union is at least somewhat strong -- with just 14 percent taking the bleak, Joe Kennedy-esque 'not strong' view.
(4) Democrats who are beating the impeachment drum should be careful. A large majority (38/57) oppose the idea.
Last but not least, this poll was in the field prior to Trump's major national address, which obviously moved the needle in his direction, and before even more positive economic headlines landed on doorsteps and pinged on smartphones across the country. It's a safe bet that Trump may have helped himself even more on Tuesday night, as more Americans heard his tax reform celebration-slash-reality check. I'll once again argue that the overriding political priority of every Republican should be to make sure that Americans both (a) notice their tax cuts in the form of ballooning paychecks over the next few months, and (b) understand the causal relationship between those favorable outcomes and their tax law. All in all, these new numbers may give Democrats an actual reason to grimace:
Tfw you told everyone millions would die but instead they got pay raises and bonuses pic.twitter.com/emTRqMveg9— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) January 31, 2018
I'll leave you with this: