The Democrats' central attack against the GOP tax reform bill is all too familiar: It's a giveaway to corporations and "the rich" that hurts the middle class. They've falsely called the plan a tax increase on the middle class, and demagogued it as a "massive attack" on middle income taxpayers -- not to mention the "end of the world." Throughout this debate, we've shared data-driven analyses from three separate nonpartisan organizations: The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), which is an official Congressional scorekeeper, the Tax Foundation (which leans to the right), and the Tax Policy Center or TPC, (which leans to the left). In spite of the deceptive rhetoric flying around social media and the airwaves, all three outfits agreed that the GOP proposal would, on average, reduce the tax burdens of every income group in America. We've showcased the TPC findings because that group is typically home to Democrats' preferred experts. Well, TPC is out with their fresh analysis of the finalized tax bill, and guess what? As we've been saying for weeks, it will slash taxes for the vast, vast majority of American taxpayers:
Tax Policy Center: 80% of taxpayers are going to get a tax cut next year under the GOP bill.— Joseph Lawler (@josephlawler) December 18, 2017
5% will see a tax hike of more than $10
The average tax cut will be $1,600, according to TPC's data (Republicans cite a different statistic: A tax cut of more than $2,000 for a median income family of four). Let those numbers marinate for a moment. We've been caught in a blizzard of misinformation claiming that this bill hurts the middle class. But even the Republican-hostile Tax Policy Center couldn't escape the empirical conclusion that 80 percent of all Americans will see their taxes reduced under the bill -- and the "losers" are limited to just five percent (largely upper income filers from high-tax blue states). And no, the "one-percenter" rich do not disproportionately benefit from the cuts:
TPC conference report:— Brian Riedl (@Brian_Riedl) December 18, 2017
Bottom 80% currently pays 33% of all federal income taxes, but gets 35% of the tax cuts.
Top 1% currently pays 27% of all federal taxes, but gets 21% of the tax cuts.
So the share of all federal taxes paid by wealthy will rise.https://t.co/F4805lVSo6
Riedl further clarified that those percentages apply to all federal taxes, not just income taxes. JCT also confirms that low- to -medium income brackets will disproportionately benefit from the tax cuts. Yet due to a relentless drumbeat of propaganda, a majority of Americans have been bamboozled into believing that their taxes will go up under the GOP bill. A new Monmouth University poll underscores the degree to which these falsehoods have taken root among the general public:
New Monmouth poll on the GOP tax plan:— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 18, 2017
If the tax plan becomes law, Americans think their taxes will:
50% Go up
14% Go down
25% Stay the samehttps://t.co/EFrifF2mHD
If a majority of people believe they're facing a tax hike, it's little wonder that public approval is so low. That misperception has been repeated dishonestly and endlessly by Democrats -- who, per usual, can count on the media to uncritically amplify their message. The verifiable reality is that 80 percent (!) of filers will get a tax cut, roughly 15 percent will see no change, and just five percent will get an appreciable tax increase; again, that's all according to the liberal TPC. By the way, a counterpoint from the Left on these statistics is that the numbers fluctuate a bit over the years, and that the individual and family tax cuts expire later in the budget window. This, they claim, is "proof" that middle class families will face "tax increases" under the GOP plan. This is a bad argument. First, it's unfair to preemptively frame the end of a tax cut as a future tax increase. And more importantly, the tax cuts (which Democrats incoherently also pretend don't exist) are highly likely to be extended or made permanent. This is what happened with the vast majority of the Bush tax cuts under Obama in 2012. Yet journalists and leftists who should know better keep citing this unrealistic future scenario as an indictment of the tax bill. An example of this mendacity:
This bill is not simply a collection of tax cuts. It raises long term taxes on the middle class, on residents of blue states, etc., to partially fund its permanent tax breaks for the wealthiest members of society. https://t.co/dOqZGZTQJW— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) December 15, 2017
The obvious retort to this misleading spin is that the only way these alleged "tax increases" would ever take place is if Democrats allow them to. Republicans are committed to maintain this level of tax relief for middle class families. Will Democrats promise not to allow the tax cuts to expire? Will Democrats pledge never to permit the hypothetical "tax hike on the middle class" (that they've gotten so much mileage out of hyping) to come to fruition? Let's get them on the record. The House is expected to pass the legislation later today, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell sounding awfully confident about doing the same in the upper chamber shortly thereafter:
He has good cause for optimism -- he has the votes:
SUSAN COLLINS is a YES on the final Republican tax bill.— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 18, 2017
It looks likely that every Senate Republican will vote yes, with the lone exception being the absent and ailing John McCain (who also supports the bill). In other words, it's all over but the shouting. But you should count on much more shouting -- much of it totally untethered from reality.