California Republican Steve Hilton believes he can win the state’s gubernatorial race, but on one condition: The more than six million Californians who voted for President Trump in 2024 must turn out for him.
Speaking on Real America’s Voice, Tuesday, Hilton explained that Trump drew more than six million votes in deep-blue California in 2024 despite barely campaigning there. In 2022, the last time the state voted for governor, total turnout was just shy of 11 million. In other words, if those Trump voters turn out for Hilton and Democrats don’t show up in droves, a possibility given what appears to be a lackluster effort from Democratic rival Xavier Becerra, Hilton could realistically defeat him in November.
Steve Hilton's math for CA: "I'll need 6M votes. In 2024, President Trump got 6.1M in California without even really campaigning here." The catch: "You don't get a presidential year turnout usually in a midterm... the point is that we CAN do it." @SteveHiltonx https://t.co/rHPXddKwBB
— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) October 27, 2026
"I know this, the pure numbers, this is the most important point. We think that to win this election, not just to do well, but to win, I'll need six million votes," Hilton explained. "In 2024, President Trump got 6.1 million in California without even really campaigning here. So the very simple truth is that if everybody who voted Republican in 2024 turns out this year, and now it's a big ask because obviously you don't get a presidential year turnout usually in the midterm. But the point is that we can do it."
Recent polling shows the Republican still faces a steep uphill battle. An Emerson College poll from earlier this month puts Becerra at 64 percent among likely voters and Hilton at 36 percent, a 28-point gap. But turnout is another matter, and it could turn the tide if California Republicans show up in force to send a message that they’ve had enough of the state’s progressive leadership.
🚨 NEW POLL: California Governor Race 2026 🟢 Xavier Becerra (D): 64% 🔴 Steve Hilton (R): 36% Emerson College | n=1000 | likely voters | Oct 17-19, 2026 https://t.co/7QXCOL869C
— Pollfinity (@pollfinity) October 27, 2026
And there is no shortage of reasons for that frustration: skyrocketing gas prices, outrageous waste, fraud and abuse, voter-fraud allegations that election officials have admitted they cannot independently verify, billions in taxpayer dollars wasted on a high-speed train to nowhere, and the possibility of finally driving away the tech industry, the Atlas holding up what remains of California’s credibility.
These failures haven’t just infuriated Republicans; they’ve angered Democrats and independents alike, just not enough, so far, to change the way they vote. But frustration alone won’t change who runs Sacramento. If Hilton can turn that dissatisfaction into turnout, he has a chance to do more than just defy the polls. He could give California the change it's been waiting for.
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