Donald Trump and his online influencers & sycophants love to post about national polls that show the former president leading Joe Biden in a potential 2024 matchup. They see it as proof that their guy can win and as a way to combat the electability argument that I and others routinely make when comparing Trump with DeSantis and even other candidates. But is there any truth to that? Can he actually pull it off?
Of course not, for multiple reasons.
First, even if a national poll this far out could mean anything at all, there are serious problems in the crosstabs of all of the polling that shows Trump leading Biden. For example, some show Biden winning barely over 50% of the black vote or Trump leading women voters. Some recent ones even show Trump at around 20% of the black vote. Please. None of this is realistic, and all of it is evidence either of serious sampling issues or an attempt to run a legitimate psyop to make it appear as though Trump has a shot. He doesn’t.
Even more important, however, is the folly of relying on any kind of national poll to determine who would win an election that will be decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. In other words, even IF Trump were actually more popular than Biden nationally (he's not - in fact, he's the only high-profile politician consistently LESS popular than Biden), his path to victory still lies through Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin (substitute New Hampshire AND Nevada if he loses Wisconsin). And sorry, if you think either Michigan or Pennsylvania is happening for Trump or even any other Republican, I’ve got a signed, press conference-worn Fetterman hoodie to sell you.
Even if Trump wins everything else he's supposed to win, even if he wins North Carolina and Ohio and Florida, if he loses even ONE of those key swing states, he loses the election. End of story. He doesn’t get to run up the score in Alabama and South Carolina, just like Democrats don’t get to run up the score in California and New York. I have and likely will in the future lay out the compelling case for a national popular vote, but that isn’t the system we’re dealing with now. Now, a Republican has to thread a narrow needle to pull out a presidential victory, and there is almost zero room for error.
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Arizona has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor and went blue in 2020. I know, I know … “much fraud.” I get it, but Trump has shown zero ability to win beyond the margin of fraud in close states, which is what Republicans have had to do for years. Is the state whose last Senate Republicans were Jeff Flake and John McCain suddenly going to wake up and realize that Trump’s their guy? Come on. Oh, and John McCain's widow, a venerable figure in Arizona politics, still hates Trump's guts. So there's that.
Georgia also has two Democratic senators, a Republican governor Trump has openly feuded with on more than one issue, and went blue in 2020. It’s also where Trump almost single-handedly cost Republicans the Senate by costing his party three (!!) different election losses, not to mention where Trump could very well - fair or not - face state prison time. No, Georgia isn’t going to “wake up” and pull the lever for Donald Trump. Not in this universe and not in any other.
Wisconsin has a Democratic governor who got reelected in a landslide, rejected Trump in 2020, and rejected the Republican in a crucial court election this year. The former president may have a shot there, but remember, a Republican has to win beyond the margins of cheating, a task that proved too tall in 2020 and is even taller now, given that he has done nothing to expand his voter base.
Check out these electoral maps from Race To The WH, a site that harnesses all the latest state-by-state polling to predict the current status of the race. That picture tells you everything you need to know. See those states I just talked about? They're ALL blue because Trump isn't leading Biden in ANY of them.
Look at it again. This is the electoral future we're looking at with Donald Trump as our nominee. So no, you should pay absolutely zero attention to so-called “national polls” that say Trump is competitive in the 2024 general election. They mean nothing. At best, they are an honest mistake by pollsters who have an impossible job this early in. At worst, they are part of a massive psyop by both the establishment media and Team Trump to install him as the GOP nominee.
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