There's no doubt that former President Donald Trump is leading in GOP primary polling. He's been running for months, one felony indictment after another keeps drawing attention and making him a martyr, and he's running against about 98 other candidates, none of whom are former presidents with a penchant for sucking all the air out of every room they enter.
In a steady second sits Trump's primary challenger, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. However, recent polling trumpeted by the Trump camp shows the former president's lead over his main competition growing, as well as a competitive general election race between Trump and Biden. The trumpeting seems aimed to present an air of inevitability like this is some sort of coronation instead of a contest. The goal, presumably, seems to be to get everyone to 'rally around Trump' and ignore everyone else based on the belief that he will beat DeSantis and that he can beat Biden.
Consider Harvard Harris, run by former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn. Recent results from this polling outfit show Trump with seemingly insurmountable leads in the GOP primary. They also show the former president competitive in a general election race.
🚨 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump: 45% (+6)
(D) Biden: 39%
(R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
(D) Biden: 40%
.
GOP PRES:
• Trump — 59% (+45)
• DeSantis — 14%
• Pence — 8%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Scott — 2%
• Christie — 2%
Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV pic.twitter.com/z8Qo4HLowH
But how much of that is real? Might there be core issues with polls that, say, claim that Biden is only at 53% with black voters and Trump is winning women and GenZ?
This poll is from Hillary Clinton's pollster.
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) June 16, 2023
They don't release the cross-tabs up front, but the numbers are close enough to last month's that we can use May's as guidance.
- Biden is not at 53% with Blacks. He's closer to 90%.
- Trump is not winning women.
- Biden is not in… https://t.co/85ji4yrvCK pic.twitter.com/1DITETiojE
Harvard-Harris = Hillary Clinton's pollster.
— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) June 16, 2023
Last month he claimed Biden was just +20 with Blacks (which he won by 75) and that Trump was winning women (which he lost by 15) and GenZ (he lost by +20).
If it looks like PSYOP and sounds like PSYOP ...https://t.co/f9yHny8wWR pic.twitter.com/rtYuUTfCKh
Look under the hood, and other polls, especially ones attempting to predict the general election, display similar weirdness:
And in today's episode of Bad Polling....
— WPA Intelligence (@WPAIntel) June 16, 2023
☑️ Trump is not just -2 with women
☑️ Biden is not at 38% with Gen Z voters
☑️ Biden will win more than 78% of Dems
☑️ In no universe is Biden at just 17% w/ Ind's https://t.co/EK13YaDgJS pic.twitter.com/QJ6FdouA14
We don't know who needs to hear this, but…
— WPA Intelligence (@WPAIntel) June 2, 2023
☑️ Trump is not winning women
☑️ Biden is unpopular but he's not just at 18% w/ Independents
☑️ Biden is not just +4 vs. Trump w/ Hispanics — even with the "breakfast tacos" comment
☑️ Trump will lose Blacks by ~75, not just 45 https://t.co/faJWIU1Lpa pic.twitter.com/6uwF9yMZHE
When it comes to polling, especially this early in a presidential election, always look at the crosstabs and demographic sampling and compare those with complex data from actual past elections. For example, if no Republican has won the women's vote in decades, do you really think Donald Trump is going to be the one to break the cycle?
Donald Trump lost women by 13 points in 2016 and by 15 points in 2020.
— WPA Intelligence (@WPAIntel) June 17, 2023
Democrats won women by 11 points in 2022.
Despite the Democrats’ efforts to redefine the word “woman,” there has actually not been a seismic shift among women voters in the last 7 months. https://t.co/CmiOFwSKNW
Fake polling with an obvious motive of convincing gullible Republicans that Trump can win the general election (a goal both Dems and Trump ppl agree on) is one of the great deceptions not just of this primary cycle so far, but in modern political history. Don’t be swayed by it. https://t.co/7OOFcteQKs
— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) June 2, 2023
This is a good analysis. If something is too good to be true, it probably is. As terrible as Biden is, he's not at just 18% with Independents against Trump.
— Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) June 2, 2023
Republicans should watch out for Democrats interfering in our primaries via junk polls.https://t.co/gLVuXvj0rs
Is Trump's lead over DeSantis in GOP primary polling insurmountable? Is the former president actually competitive against Biden in a general election race? Considering the past history and basic common sense, the answer to both questions is a likely 'no.' All of us should take all of this polling with a massive, massive grain of salt.
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