Dear Mr. Mullings:
You are a moron.
Signed,
The Tea Party
Yes, well. There is that.
I didn't think Lisa Murkowski would lose to Joe Miller in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Alaska last week; and I certainly didn't think Mike Castle would lose to Christine O'Donnell in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Delaware last night.
I was more-or-less wrong in both cases.
Dear Mr. Mullings:
There was no "more-or-less" about it. You were flat, 180 degrees, 100 percent incorrect.
Signed,
Everyone Else
One of my many guaranteed-to-get-a-laugh lines in my excellent speeches is after I am asked to predict who will run, won't run, will win, won't win, and so on; I always end with: "But, keep in mind I am wrong exactly 50 percent of the time."
[laughter]
I'm not saying that any more. I'm nowhere near 50 percent correct.
Assuming I've used up all my wrong predictions, let's plow ahead.
The GOP will not lose the seats in either Kentucky (Tea Party candidate Rand Paul), or Alaska (Tea Party candidate Joe Miller). Those were GOP seats and so they are holds.
Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle has an excellent shot at beating Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. Why? Harry Reid has run a perfect campaign up to and including picking Sharron Angle as his opponent.
Nevertheless, as of last night, both the Reuters and the Ipsos polls have Reid leading Angle by a very, very thin margin of 46-44 which is awfully bad news for an incumbent.
One of the smartest people on the planet, Charles Krauthammer, cited William F. Buckley as saying he "had a rule that he always supported the most conservative candidate who was electable, otherwise the [endorsement] was simply self-indulgence."
Well, Sarah Palin and South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint both endorsed Christine O'Donnell in Delaware. After last night I am not at all certain of the outcome on November 2, so their endorsements might be a lot more than self-indulgence.
In any event, the Senate seat in Delaware is now in Democratic hands, so even if O'Donnell does not win, it isn't plus one for the Ds.
But, when the history of this election cycle is written it might be that little Delaware - which has about 100,000 corporate head offices and one Amtrak station as its claims to fame - was actually the fulcrum which showed once and for all that the movement started by CNBC's Rick Santelli in February, 2009 is real and Americans are going to go to the polls to make themselves heard.
If you step back from the four-box shouting matches on the cable news channels and think about it, this is nothing more nor less than the continuation of what Americans were looking for when they elected Barack Obama in 2008.
They wanted change in Washington and they voted for the guy who said he would bring it to them.
Obama, as it turns out, had no idea how to accomplish what he promised and so has failed miserably in bringing that change, but the desire for change has not abated.
The only difference is, in 2008 the Left had the megaphone. In 2010 it is the Right.
The harsh reality of it is: People like me just don't get it. This isn't about great tactics and clever campaign commercials. It isn't about winning the news cycle and having a good finance report.
This is about electing people who are going to get the Federal government to stop pressing the handle that has been flushing America's wealth, ingenuity, and capacity for hard work down the toilet bowl of history by promising more and more to people who have produced less and less until no one has anything.
Whew! Kind of worked myself into a lather, there.
We'll see what happens in November, but I'm now pretty sure that I've be wrong about this election and all the other geniuses who talk to one another here inside the Beltway have been wrong, too.
Then again, I'm wrong a lot.
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