| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of September 1 | |||
| September 1 | |||
| Labor Day | |||
| September 2 | |||
| Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - August | 57.5 | 55.8 | 57.8 |
| ISM (Mfg) - August | 57.1 | 57.1 | 56.8 |
| ISM Prices | 58.0 | 59.5 | 58.0 |
| Construction Spending - July | 0.8% | -1.8 | 0.9 |
| September 3 | |||
| Auto Sales* - August | 16.60M | 16.48 | 16.60 |
| Car Sales | 8.00 | 8.00 | |
| Truck Sales | 8.60 | 8.49 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| ADP Employment Report - August | 120K | 218 | 223 |
| Factory Orders - June | 11.1% | 1.6 | 10.9 |
| Durable Goods Orders | |||
| Nondurable Goods Orders | |||
| September 4 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 302K | 298 | 300 |
| International Trade - July | -$43.0B | -41.5 | -42.3 |
| Productivity - Q2 (r) | 2.5% | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| ISM Services - August | 57.2 | 58.7 | 57.5 |
| September 5 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - August | 220K | 209 | 230 |
| Private | 210 | 198 | 220 |
| Core Private* | 170 | 164 | |
| Manufacturing | 15 | 28 | 20 |
| Unemployment | 6.1% | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Average Workweek | 34.5Hr | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| Week of September 8 | |||
| September 8 | |||
| Consumer Credit - July | $17.2B | 17.3 | 17.2 |
| September 9 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August | 95.7 | 95.7 | |
| JOLTS - July | 4.721 | 4.671 | |
| September 10 | |||
| Wholesale Inventories - July | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| September 11 | |||
| Treasury Budget - August | -$106B | -94.6 | |
| September 12 | |||
| Retail Sales - August | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Export Prices -August | -0.1% | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Import Prices | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Business Inventories - July | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p) | 83.5 | 82.5 | |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
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