Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of September 1 | |||
September 1 | |||
Labor Day | |||
September 2 | |||
Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - August | 57.5 | 55.8 | 57.8 |
ISM (Mfg) - August | 57.1 | 57.1 | 56.8 |
ISM Prices | 58.0 | 59.5 | 58.0 |
Construction Spending - July | 0.8% | -1.8 | 0.9 |
September 3 | |||
Auto Sales* - August | 16.60M | 16.48 | 16.60 |
Car Sales | 8.00 | 8.00 | |
Truck Sales | 8.60 | 8.49 | |
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
ADP Employment Report - August | 120K | 218 | 223 |
Factory Orders - June | 11.1% | 1.6 | 10.9 |
Durable Goods Orders | |||
Nondurable Goods Orders | |||
September 4 | |||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 302K | 298 | 300 |
International Trade - July | -$43.0B | -41.5 | -42.3 |
Productivity - Q2 (r) | 2.5% | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Unit Labor Costs | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
ISM Services - August | 57.2 | 58.7 | 57.5 |
September 5 | |||
Nonfarm Payrolls - August | 220K | 209 | 230 |
Private | 210 | 198 | 220 |
Core Private* | 170 | 164 | |
Manufacturing | 15 | 28 | 20 |
Unemployment | 6.1% | 6.2 | 6.1 |
Average Workweek | 34.5Hr | 34.5 | 34.5 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.2 | 0.2 |
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
Week of September 8 | |||
September 8 | |||
Consumer Credit - July | $17.2B | 17.3 | 17.2 |
September 9 | |||
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August | 95.7 | 95.7 | |
JOLTS - July | 4.721 | 4.671 | |
September 10 | |||
Wholesale Inventories - July | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
September 11 | |||
Treasury Budget - August | -$106B | -94.6 | |
September 12 | |||
Retail Sales - August | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Export Prices -August | -0.1% | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Import Prices | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
Business Inventories - July | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p) | 83.5 | 82.5 | |
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |
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