Iran: Implode or Explode?

Iran seems high on drugs with its most recent demands from the U.S.

One of the hallmarks of Palestinians fighting with Israel is that the former always make the demands. Israel can destroy 70 percent of the buildings, take 60 percent of Gaza, and kill over 50,000 Hamas terrorists, yet it will be Hamas and its out-of-state billionaire leaders who make the demands for “peace”. You may have noted that during the past few months, Israel has been terminating October 7^th terrorists, sometimes one or two a day or a couple per week. There are still thousands out there — independent of those waiting for the hangman while joining Weight Watchers in Israeli prisons. Israel has a special unit to kill each and every one of those who entered on October 7, 2023. Roach Motel: you can enter, but your car or motorbike will be blown up shortly.

The latest report has Iran making six demands of the United States in return for opening the Straits of Hormuz. $300 billion in US reparations and a seven percent fee (of cargo value) on waterway transit are included in the list. Does anyone believe that Donald Trump will wire the mullahs $300 billion? Me neither. As to controlling the Straits and getting paid for transit, that has been a non-starter since the beginning of the war. Why isn’t Iran simply accepting US terms or rolling over and playing dead? There are a couple of reasons for the badly damaged regime acting like it’s in charge of the joint.

1. U.S. Press. The press likes to paint everything related to the US, President Trump, and American war-fighting capabilities in the most negative light. They say that Donald Trump has to end the war to win the midterm elections. Periodic reports say that the U.S. is out of interceptors or offensive missiles. The most recent claim has General Caine looking for an off-ramp for the war. All of the news coming out of the US is negative, and the IRGC is lapping it up. Add the Tucker Carlson break with Trump over Iran, and the folks in Tehran figure that the US is on the ropes.
2. U.S. Negotiators. After pummeling an enemy with relatively low losses of men and equipment, the US negotiators could have been selected from a school for the deaf and dumb. Just hand the Iranians a piece of paper with the words, “We admit that we lost; we’ll do whatever you tell us,” written on it and leave some space at the bottom for Iranians' signatures. The Nazis were so humiliated by the Allies that they had to sign their capitulation agreement twice. In the first go, the Russians were not present. Stalin blew a gasket, and the whole thing had to be done again in the presence of a Russian general. The Japanese were famously brought out to the USS Missouri to sign whatever General MacArthur put onto expensive Japanese parchment. The same should have been true now, but our negotiators are trying to make a deal as equals. Witkoff & Kushner should be the name of a law firm or deli; they should not be the names of our negotiators. Witkoff is a Qatar-loving businessman, while Kushner has business with Saudi Arabia. We need a Curtis LeMay type who says few words and needs even fewer to seal the deal.
3. The Iranians. The Iranians always mistake generosity for weakness. It is a common syndrome here in the Middle East. Whenever Israel lets up on the pedal with the Palestinians, the latter use the break or easing of restrictions to attack Jews. At the exhortation of Condi Rice, Israel took down some roadblocks in the West Bank. The U.S. Secretary of State said that such impediments were ruining the Palestinian economy. So Israel complied; a drive-by shooter killed some Jews near Hebron, and the roadblocks returned. The Iranians see the Trumpian “let’s stop shooting to make a deal” as synonymous with “we’re out of bullets; let’s buy some time.” So they are fixing their infrastructure and rejuvenating their weapons stock. They don’t understand that Donald Trump could in a second unleash the full force of the US and Israeli militaries, and the mullahs wouldn’t know what hit them until after they were in the past tense. The Muslims always mistake American, European, and Israeli goodwill for weakness and failure. Those 90 US aerial tankers sitting at Ben Gurion Airport should be a clear warning to the Iranians, but they’re too busy gloating to figure out why they are there in place of normal commercial airliners.

So how does this go from here? Professor Victor Davis Hanson recently stated that the president needs to finish the Iran War in the next few weeks and then focus on driving down gas prices before the midterms. I don’t know if the U.S. will strike again. I also don’t know if the claims about missiles and interceptors are true or noise — intentional or otherwise. The Israelis are gangbusters to attack, even if alone. The mullocracy is at its weakest point since its formation nearly fifty years ago. Much of their industry and war-making capabilities have been destroyed, and their proxies have been badly beaten. The people want change, and the economy is going off a cliff. Does Israel think that it can give the theocracy a coup de mort and finish them off? I don’t know. I kind of expect at almost any moment that annoying sound to ring out from my cellphone. I sometimes wonder if I should start some process that will take longer than 10 minutes to finish, should the noise go off and we need to dash off to the bomb shelter. I don’t think that the fighting is over, and Donald Trump, while very patient, still has his own red lines. He will not let Iran run the Straits, charge money, and exclude US- and Israeli-bound traffic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wisely said that in two years the Straits will be irrelevant. I believe he’s right, but we live now. Iran will implode either through its broken economy, lack of oil income, or hot American lead. I guess the president is letting them choose their mode of exit. He recently suggested that he is taking a low-key approach, not agreeing to Iran’s terms but also not bombing them heavily. He also proposed Iran paying the reparations for its decades of murderous activities.

One cannot overstate the possible upsides of the theocratic regime entering the dustbin of history. The possibility of 90 million Iranians living normal lives without being beaten for not covering hair or supporting the regime is already a great start. Now imagine Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis losing their financial and weapons sugar daddy. Think of Lebanon free from Hezbollah’s grip. Imagine the Palestinian people not having to live with or join the death cult of Hamas. The destruction of the Islamic regime would have worldwide implications, including in the West, where financial support from the mullahs would vanish. Those who have suffered under the IRGC might be looking for a little payback from all of the liberal Western women who were rooting for the lunatics and against them and their loved ones. Qatar is a major funder of the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in the US and Europe. It too will have to be dealt with if it will not shut down its anti-Western activities.

The Iran War is definitely not over, but I couldn’t guess where it’s going and when there might be more fighting beyond the recent disabling of a tanker. Iran is hurting economically, but the ideological leadership could not care less about its people and whether they have food to eat. Iran is going to either implode or explode — and let’s hope soon.

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