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OPINION

A Cost-Benefits Analysis of Trump 2024

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
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AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

America under Joe Biden is the antithesis of what our nation was under Donald J. Trump. Axios reports that: “At his Thursday rally [November 3rd], in Sioux City, Iowa Trump said: "In order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again… Get ready that’s all I’m telling you — very soon. Get ready."

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I believe this would be a mistake and set back the success of the conservative movement a decade or more.

Scott Johnson of the Babylon Bee said the result of this election “was pessimistic as usual, but I prefer to think of my pessimism as the higher realism. I expected the worst and hoped for the best, but I had no ken that the elections could have played out as poorly for Republicans as they have.” Simply put, there was no red wave breaking over America.

Harsh you say? Harsh is the middle name of American politics especially more recently since the “I’ve got a pen and a phone to sign executive orders” Obama years in 2014. Like many of you, I voted for Trump in 2016 and was very pleased with what he accomplished economically and internationally.

I trusted that 2022 would only be spilled political milk and would be revenged with enough Republicans winning down ballot to return decisively the House of Representatives and hopefully the Senate as well. With this surprising and disappointing showing, Trump’s running in 2024 would undo the marginal conservative advances Republicans made now and lead the GOP to again assume second fiddle to the Democrat Party in two years.

Whether Trump’s political baggage is justified or not, he has it in spades and you can count on the MSM, second-fiddle Democrats and never-Trump Republicans to work and vote against the Republican ticket in 2024, or simply stay home from the poles. Trump’s recent “mean tweet”, achieved in Reddit, reprised his claims from 2020 that the election was stolen, the MSM is corrupt, that he was the victim of Democrat hoaxes and scams, and the Hunter Biden laptop has never been prosecuted. This rerepeated harangue to many Republicans, the MSM, all Democrats is simply SSDD and a prima facie reason to vote against him again in 2024. 

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In fact, Politico is encouraging Mr. Trump to run again in 2024: “Democrats aren’t just eager for Donald Trump to cannonball into the 2024 presidential race before the fall midterms. Across the country, they are actively plotting ways to immediately capitalize on a pre-November announcement. Campaigns and officials at major Democratic outfits are planning to capture the anticipated cash windfall that would come their way should Trump announce he’s making another run at the White House.”

Simply put, Republicans don’t need to give Democrats any help two years from now. One of the reasons is because we have an extremely competent, morally honorable and politically accomplished contender waiting in the wings. This would be Ron DeSantis who can be counted on to bring to fruition all the legitimately persuasive policies Republicans want without the tractor-trailer of off-putting baggage a second Trump presidency would entail.

DeSantis graduated from Yale University and Harvard Law School. He joined the United States Navy in 2004 and was promoted to lieutenant then served as a SEAL Team One advisor and was deployed to Iraq in 2007. DeSantis has been a practicing attorney--prosecutor, defense attorney, international law attorney and a Judge Advocate General’s Corps Officer. He is arguably Florida’s most successful governor. Ever!! Under him, Florida was the first state in the Union to have ended the teaching of Critical Race Theory (CRT), went with his team to southwest Florida as soon as they could safely helicopter in and assess the devastation of Hurricane Ian to reassure citizens that they would be cared for and all property insurance honored; he was instrumental in getting the bridge from Pine Island and surrounding barrier islands to the mainland rebuilt in just three days. Most disasters like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina have counter such disaster response in weeks.

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The Trump Brand Doing More Harm than Good

P.T. Barnum is credited with coining the phrase, “There’s no such thing as bad publicity.” That was proven false by Republican candidates who garnered Trump support. The most shocking came when John Fetterman, a largely incoherent disabelist candidate and current Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania sent Mehmet Oz packing by more than 150,000 votes despite Fetterman’s cringing sartorial presence and performance in their only debate.

Apparently, there is such a thing as the kiss of death support in American election. Election 2022 was a huge disappointment for Republicans with the one bright spot being Florida where Governor Ron DeSantis crushed Charlie Crist and March Rubio beat Val Demings by more than 1.2 million votes. DeSantis, with an eye on the 2024 Presidential election didn’t ask Trump to campaign for him. Rubio received imputed support from Trump and won handily. In fact, some might argue that Trump’s support was the kiss of death to the Republicans he supported although J.D. Vance won in Ohio. 

Many Republicans believe that Trump supports some Republican candidates financially while lending his imprimatur and personal support during campaign stops. Forbes this week asked rhetorically, how billionaire Trump becomes a kingmaker in American politics without giving away any of his own money? Afterall, George Soros dumped $129 million into left-leaning super-PACs in this election. The answer is Trump doesn’t. He loans them his brand which we sadly know now may be of negative value to the candidates while Trump receives a hero’s welcome in front of adoring fans.

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As of 4 p.m. on November 9, 2022 the midterm election for U.S. Senate has yielded 22 Democrats and 24 Republicans with four seats still too close to call and 194 Democrats and 210 Republicans for the House of Representatives. Hardly the Red Wave we were hoping for.

Trump 2022 Endorsement Losses

Senate Candidates:

Mehmet Oz—defeated in Pennsylvania by John Fetterman.

Don Bolduc—defeated in New Hampshire by Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Leora Levy—defeated in Connecticut by Richard Blumenthal.

Gerald Malloy—defeated in Vermont by Peter Welch.

House of Representatives candidates:

Bo Hines—defeated in North Carolina's District 13 by Wiley Nickel.

Steve Chabot—defeated in Ohio's District 1 by Greg Landsman.

Madison Gesiotto Gilbert—defeated in Ohio's District 13 by Emilia Sykes.

John Gibbs—defeated in Michigan District 3 by Hillary Scholten.

Yesli Vega—defeated in Virginia's District 7 by Abigail Spanberger.

Karoline Leavitt—defeated in New Hampshire's District 1 by Rep. Chris Pappas.

J.R. Majewski—defeated in Ohio's District 9 by Marcy Kaptur.

Sandy Smith—defeated in North Carolina's District 1 by Don Davis.

Angie Craig--defeated Tyler Kistner in Minnesota’s District 2. 

Gubernatorial candidates:

Tudor Dixon—lost to Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan.

Doug Mastriano—lost to Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania.

Lee Zeldin—lost to Governor Kathy Hochul in New York.

Dan Cox—lost to Wes Moore in Maryland.

Geoff Diehl—lost to Maura Healey in Massachusetts.

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Tim Michels—lost to Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin.

Darren Bailey—lost to Governor J.B. Pritzker in Illinois.

Scott Jensen—lost in Minnesota to Governor Tim Walz.

Mark Ronchetti—lost in New Mexico to Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The 2022 Midterm election has revealed that The Donald can no longer be considered the Republican Great White Hope. His support this November of Republicans across the many states in play, some quite accomplished and articulate, for the U.S. Congress and Senate allowed him to command center stage. His pitch to Republican candidate rally audiences was “I won the 2020 Presidential election, but it was stolen from me and so I’m going to come and help you now.”

Clearly Trump’s support didn’t help very much and may have been a distinct hinderance since despite Biden’s horrible performance as President, Republicans actually lost several governorships and gained only marginally in the Senate and House races. Other drawbacks of Trumpian support is the fact that the Deep State hates him with a passion since before he was elected in 2016 and will commit their staff and influence to undo him and the people he supports. DeSantis is a much better and undamaged political bet in 2024.


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