This is it, Election Day in Virginia. If you don’t live there, I can understand why your eyes would gloss over and you’d move on without reading more. Then again, you clicked on this headline, so you’re at least interested in the topic, so keep reading. Because the election in Virginia isn’t just about Virginia, it’s like looking through a wormhole into the future, as the campaigns run, at least by Democrats, are pretty much what the Democrats will be running from Joe Biden on down.
I live in Maryland, but very close to the Virginia border. That means I’m “treated” to campaign ads from both states (and the District of Columbia, but the only real contest in those elections is in the Democrat primary). While Maryland isn’t in the midst of an election cycle at the moment, Virginia has off-year elections for their legislature. Every seat is up for grabs in the states House and Senate.
Republicans control the House, Democrats have the Senate. If Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin can flip the Senate and hold the House, he will be able to get much, maybe most, of his agenda through and his stock in the veepstakes increases exponentially. If Democrats hold or gain, Youngkin’s remaining tenure (Virginia limits governors to one term, which is kind of stupid because there’s little accountability to voters) will be essentially pointless.
More than the fate of Glenn Youngkin’s political future, the race is what 2024 is likely to be. Every ad I’ve seen on TV from Democrats, and there have been A LOT of ads on TV from Democrats, paints every single GOP candidate as a “MAGA extremist.” The issue the ad is about doesn’t matter, everyone has Donald Trump tied around their necks.
I don’t know if these candidates are big fans of Trump or not, it doesn’t really matter. What matters is the Democrats have decided that painting everyone with the same “Trump brush” is their best, and maybe only, pathway to victory. Will it be? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.
But it’s worth noting that Trump is the issue in races he’s not really played a role in. The former president doesn’t really campaign for other Republican candidates. He might mention them from the stage at one of his rallies, in between complaining about various prosecutors or other Republicans he has deemed insufficiently loyal, but he doesn’t really make the case for candidates beyond that they’ve said nice things about him.
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If Republicans lose seats or don’t take the Senate in Virginia, it will be a warning to GOP voters that Trump, while popular with Republican primary voters (at least in polls so far), is not popular with voters in a general election. It’s not uncommon in politics – Barack Obama was popular, not only with Democrats but with the general public. When it came to elections, however, he was never able to push anyone over the finish line, even losing a Senate race in Massachusetts. Trump is the same thing. He lost how many Senate races in Georgia in the last two elections, when you count run-offs?
What happens in Virginia will, and should, be seen as a harbinger for 2024 – if Republicans win, it means the only strategy Democrats have (running against Trump everywhere because they can’t run on Biden’s record) is in serious trouble. If Democrats win, it means Republicans are in trouble because voters, no matter how awful Joe Biden’s record is (and it is awful), would rather not have anything to do with candidates tied to Donald Trump.
That’s a little simplistic, but only a little. Many of the commercials were about abortion too. Democrats are counting on that to motivate their voters this year like it did in 2022. But the main focus of the campaign has been Trump. We’re about to find out if a small percentage of the population’s hatred of a man can overcome a smaller percentage of the population’s devotion to him, and more importantly, whether or not the rest of the voting public can be swayed by either.
The 2024 election is about to get very real by offering a dress rehearsal in Virginia. I have to wonder if anyone on either side can be swayed by the results, no matter what they end up being, or if they’ve both painted themselves so deeply into their corners that there’s no changing anything at this point?
Derek Hunter is the host of a free daily podcast (subscribe!) and author of the book, Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly “Week in F*cking Review” podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be. Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.
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