Over the weekend, I had the chance to delve into a lot of data out last week, including the final read on September Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
I’m not a big believer in polls; although, directional trends matter. I do pay attention to Consumer Sentiment and Confidence trends because their spending is 2/3 of the nation’s GDP. There were supplemental questions on the election and expectations.
One question I never hear asked is which candidate would be best for personal finance. In this question, President Trump has a large edge of Biden; although, in the same survey, one percent more respondents see Biden winning.
Adding even more intrigue is the overwhelming expectation that the next five years will see better personal finance. The most optimistic age bracket are young millennials. An astonishing 84% expect good things for their wallets and pocketbooks while only 4% see things getting worse. Food for thought as everyone plays the Presidential election guessing game.
Election & Expected Economic Impact | Trump | Biden | Net |
Best for Personal Finance | 33% | 26% | +7 |
Economy | 38% | 33% | +5 |
Expected Winner | 47% | 48% | -1 |
Personal Finance | Best | Worst | Net |
Past Five Years | 64% | 26% | +38 |
25 – 34 | 38% | 33% | +5 |
Expected Five Years | 56% | 11% | +45 |
25 – 34 | 84% | 4% | +80 |
Message of the Market
The market swayed to and fro on Friday, climbing off deep pre-opening declines, but failing to rally into the plus column, and finally ebbing into the closing bell.
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The most interesting aspect of the session is tech was not a safe haven, as investors flocked back to traditional comfort stocks in the Utilities and Real Estate sectors.
Value buyers did show up in the Industrials and Materials sectors and bottom fisher took a shot at Energy stocks.
S&P 500 Index | -0.96% | |
Communication Services XLC | -1.98% | |
Consumer Discretionary XLY | -0.42% | |
Consumer Staples XLP | -0.56% | |
Energy XLE | +0.96% | |
Financials XLF | +0.79% | |
Health Care XLV | -0.91% | |
Industrials XLI | +1.12% | |
Materials XLB | +0.89% | |
Real Estate XLRE | +1.62% | |
Technology XLK | -2.54% | |
Utilities XLU | +1.18% |
Lots of Energy names were among the top ten winners, along with a couple of Financials. What they have in common is 2020 has been devastating. Investors are guessing the selling is overdone.
Lyondellbasell Industries | XLB | +4.10 | +6.02% |
United Rentals | XLI | +9.67 | +5.51% |
Devon Energy | XLE | +0.50 | +5.49% |
Invesco | XLF | +0.60 | +5.33% |
ONEOK . | XLE | +1.26 | +4.99% |
Diamondback Energy | XLE | +1.38 | +4.74% |
Apache | XLE | +0.43 | +4.62% |
SL Green Realty | XLRE | +2.07 | +4.38% |
Marathon Oil | XLE | +0.17 | +4.30% |
Fifth Third | XLF | +0.86 | +4.09% |
Hotline Model Portfolio Approach
We took profits in Materials and raised Cash to 15% in our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
Everyone watching and waiting for President Trump to depart Walter Reed hospital. Already markets around the world have started strong on word that could happen as soon as today.
Meanwhile, we continue with stimulus watch. Watch S&P 500 key resistance of 3,400 for a major buy signal.
Trump’s Tweet Storm
Beginning with tweets on the stock market, President Trump when on a twitter tweet storm this morning.
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
PROTECT PREEXISTING CONDITIONS. VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
BETTER & CHEAPER HEALTHCARE. VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
MASSIVE REGULATION CUTS. VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
BEST V.A. EVER. 91% APPROVAL RATING. VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
401(K). VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
STOCK MARKET HIGHS. VOTE!
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