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OPINION

Trade in Our Trade?

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
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Despite coming in better-than-expected, the ISM Non-Manufacturing (service economy) report could move the needle on the first quarter 2016 (1Q16) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Actually, it is pathetic how low the estimate has drifted. It’s not the stuff of interest rate hikes, but it’s also not the kind of backbone needed for the start of a real economically driven rally.

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1Q16 GDP Model
March & April Adjustments

March Date

Data Source

Estimate

3

ISM Non-Manufacturing

2.0%

4

Jobs Report

2.2%

9

Wholesale Trade

2.2%

10

Monthly Treasury Statement

2.3%

15

Retail Sales

1.9%

16

Housing Starts

1.9%

21

Existing Home Sales

1.7%

23

New Home Sales

1.6%

24

Durable Goods

1.4%

28

GDP, Personal Income & Spending

0.6%

April 1

Jobs Report

0.7%

4

Auto Sales & Manufacturing

0.4%

5

ISM Non-Manufacturing

0.4%

Atlanta Federal Reserve

JOLTS

The Jobs Openings report was a mixed bag at best. Openings slipped, but quits increased oddly in sectors where openings declined; it’s not supposed to work that way. However, this is an important component of Janet Yellen’s dashboard, and there were no blinking lights to speed up or to slow down.

JOLTS

Report

Openings

Quits

February

January

February

January

Total Private

4,960

5,137

2,791

2,684

Construction

193

157

11

19

Manufacturing

313

336

156

147

Financial Activity

328

372

125

111

Education

1,031

1,129

371

343

It was an ugly session that lacked leadership, marred by an extension of the war on business with President Obama going after inversions. Now, there is talk about halting the Halliburton – Baker Hughes merger.

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Stay Tuned…

Election 2016

Last night frontrunners in both parties suffered major losses in Wisconsin, adding to the complex nature of this year’s contest. Wisconsin has a great track record of picking the GOP nominee, so maybe Ted Cruz is right about this being the ‘turning point.’

Wisconsin Picks Nominee

Year

Winner

Percent

1968

Nixon

80%

1972

Nixon

97%

1976

Ford

55%

1980

Reagan

40%

1984

Reagan

95%

1988

George HW Bush

82%

1992

George HW Bush

76%

1996

Bob Dole

52%

2000

George H Bush

69%

2004

George H Bush

99%

2008

McCain

55%

2012

Romney

44%

There is so much at stake with this election that will impact not only the nation’s economic standing and potential but your 401K, too.

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