Despite coming in better-than-expected, the ISM Non-Manufacturing (service economy) report could move the needle on the first quarter 2016 (1Q16) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Actually, it is pathetic how low the estimate has drifted. It’s not the stuff of interest rate hikes, but it’s also not the kind of backbone needed for the start of a real economically driven rally.
1Q16 GDP Model |
||
March Date |
Data Source |
Estimate |
3 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
2.0% |
4 |
Jobs Report |
2.2% |
9 |
Wholesale Trade |
2.2% |
10 |
Monthly Treasury Statement |
2.3% |
15 |
Retail Sales |
1.9% |
16 |
Housing Starts |
1.9% |
21 |
Existing Home Sales |
1.7% |
23 |
New Home Sales |
1.6% |
24 |
Durable Goods |
1.4% |
28 |
GDP, Personal Income & Spending |
0.6% |
April 1 |
Jobs Report |
0.7% |
4 |
Auto Sales & Manufacturing |
0.4% |
5 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
0.4% |
Atlanta Federal Reserve |
||
JOLTS
The Jobs Openings report was a mixed bag at best. Openings slipped, but quits increased oddly in sectors where openings declined; it’s not supposed to work that way. However, this is an important component of Janet Yellen’s dashboard, and there were no blinking lights to speed up or to slow down.
JOLTS Report |
Openings |
Quits |
||
February |
January |
February |
January |
|
Total Private |
4,960 |
5,137 |
2,791 |
2,684 |
Construction |
193 |
157 |
11 |
19 |
Manufacturing |
313 |
336 |
156 |
147 |
Financial Activity |
328 |
372 |
125 |
111 |
Education |
1,031 |
1,129 |
371 |
343 |
It was an ugly session that lacked leadership, marred by an extension of the war on business with President Obama going after inversions. Now, there is talk about halting the Halliburton – Baker Hughes merger.
Stay Tuned…
Election 2016
Last night frontrunners in both parties suffered major losses in Wisconsin, adding to the complex nature of this year’s contest. Wisconsin has a great track record of picking the GOP nominee, so maybe Ted Cruz is right about this being the ‘turning point.’
Wisconsin Picks Nominee |
||
Year |
Winner |
Percent |
1968 |
Nixon |
80% |
1972 |
Nixon |
97% |
1976 |
Ford |
55% |
1980 |
Reagan |
40% |
1984 |
Reagan |
95% |
1988 |
George HW Bush |
82% |
1992 |
George HW Bush |
76% |
1996 |
Bob Dole |
52% |
2000 |
George H Bush |
69% |
2004 |
George H Bush |
99% |
2008 |
McCain |
55% |
2012 |
Romney |
44% |
There is so much at stake with this election that will impact not only the nation’s economic standing and potential but your 401K, too.