I don’t agree with the narrative that consumers are overwhelmingly confident because there hasn't been a dip in retail sales for six months. However, it does suggest consumers aren’t afraid of their own shadow anymore. The fact is consumers have had a right to be confused, frustrated, and angry.
The economy is meandering, paychecks are drifting, and hope is fading. Of course, as someone that’s watched the market for a living for 30 years, these periods can be presages of greatness- but those don’t come by accident.
That’s why this is the most exciting election season in years; and for many, the last stand for America. We aren’t Greece and we won’t slip into the Pacific Ocean overnight, but we’ve pushed the envelope long enough to have that greatness lost forever.
Yes, this is a serious period for America. We can choose to be Europe and divvy up the wealth and live off the memories. I am not ready to do that and neither are most of you. However, the nation could be as we once again are hearing the alluring siren of socialism.
That said, the average person just wants a pay raise and access to borrowing money in order to buy a home or to start a business. So, the nation is in a rut; mostly operating on muscle memory.
Of course, that’s the biggest muscle in the history of mankind.
In the meantime, we are going out to dinner a little more and purchasing sporting goods.
Bond Rotation
Bond yields surged yesterday in such an abrupt manner that long-standing bond bulls were bending over backwards to get out or to prove that they had already lessened their exposure.
It was almost comical to witness many of these guys who bragged about every half a percentage point gain in the same way that those day-traders used to brag about scalping a quick nickel from a trade.
To be sure, bond yields have been higher, but as I’ve pointed out, coupled with the fact that the 10-year yield has held at 2.0%, it suggests that maybe the great bond rally is coming to an end.
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