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OPINION

No-Fear Pullback

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China’s stock market was hammered earlier this week, and there is growing anxiety over the duration of the rally and the next move by the Federal Reserve. For the record, I cannot wait for any Fed-related pullback when rates go up as it will create a huge buying opportunity.

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In the meantime, the S&P 500 hit the top of its trading range and looks vulnerable here.

I see from this chart that there might be a little support around 2,048, but the real test for the index is happening around 2,000 – which would be an entry point if it held.

There is a fair amount of speculation about why winners like Apple have been under pressure; some think it’s to help cover margin calls associated with free-falling oil.

We’ve raised some cash recently and may raise more today; certainly, not forcing it into the open.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

A noteworthy release this morning came from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) which publishes a monthly survey on the sentiment of small business owners. The small business optimism index surged by 2.0 index points in November to a reading of 98.1. This is the highest reading of the recovery, going back to February 2007. The index is suddenly at its historic average of 98.0.

We will elaborate further on this survey in the afternoon note.

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