President Donald Trump would appear to be close to an Iran deal. What will it entail?
Donald Trump apparently made one condition when allowing Home Alone 2 to be filmed in the Plaza Hotel: he had to have a cameo, which he did in the lobby with the star of the movie. The title above is taken from the same movie when Harry tells Marv to let him handle the nocturnal negotiations with Kevin McCallister
When we think about the end of World War II, we remember the unconditional surrender terms demanded by the Allies of their Axis enemies. And while the Germans signed—twice—capitulation terms that were unconditional in nature, the Japanese ultimately did not. Sure, the world considered their destruction complete, with the signing of the surrender document on the massive deck of the USS Missouri. But ultimately, Harry Truman somewhat blinked: the Japanese kept the emperor. Yes, he had to renounce being a deity, but the Japanese wanted to keep the emperor as head of the Japanese people. The US tacitly agreed, and MacArthur used the emperor to exhort the defeated Japanese people to accept the American general’s program. If you go to Japan and are impressed with the modern wonders there, you can give thanks to one of America’s last five-star generals.
I want to say as a disclaimer that this article may age badly like milk left in the sun. I measure my failure rate in MPMs—Mistakes Per Minute. And while there is much talk about an impending Iran deal, everything I write below may shortly be shown to be wrong. So be it. I couldn’t predict yesterday’s weather, but that isn’t my job presently.
There are two things that people must separate in their minds. The first is that Donald Trump, by all rights, is the only person who can make, sign, and enforce a deal with Iran. While Israel has sent thousands of sorties to attack the Islamic empire, and the Gulf states, too, apparently took a couple of shots at their nearby enemy, Donald Trump initiated this war. He sent a massive chunk of America’s war-making men and machinery to the area around Iran and started the war that included hundreds of Tomahawk missile launches and thousands of bombs dropped by everything from F-15s to B-52s. Donald Trump started the war, and he alone on the non-Iranian side is the only one who can say it’s over.
The second point is that, as Donald Trump is the final arbiter of the war, he can make any deal he so pleases. If the Iranians promise to name every male born during the next twelve months “Donald” and the president finds this sufficient for the men and material expended on the battlefield, then that’s it. I don’t know what deal is being negotiated. I read a lot of snippets claiming this and that, but ultimately, many of those writers are either out of the loop or don’t like Donald Trump. Even if Donald Trump makes a “lousy” deal, he has every right to make it. Wars are fought for the peace that should ideally follow. It’s hard for me to believe that Donald Trump would make a bad deal. He has been consistent in his demand that Iran end its nuclear program. He wants the Straits of Hormuz open to maritime traffic. He has said that Iran’s ballistic missile program can no longer be a long-range threat. Has he given up on any of these points? Has he made a Clintonesque triangulation calculation that finishing up sooner will be politically good if militarily questionable? Again, I don’t yet know the terms of the deal, though they may well be published before this piece hits Townhall’s website. So, I apologize if I’m off the mark with these observations.
With the US adding weapons to its forces in the region and Ben Gurion Airport hosting dozens of US tankers, my feeling has been that the war will continue sometime soon. I go to bed with the thought of how I will get dressed and out the door in five minutes should the phone make that hideous sound implying that ballistic missiles are on the way. Have the Iranians finally agreed to give up their enriched uranium and bomb-making facilities? Has Donald Trump decided to ask for less and just end the war? The kinetic portion of the war did enormous damage to Iran’s missile and war-making capabilities. Much of their navy is stored in Davy Jones’ Locker, while the last F-14s available for the next Top Gun movie were destroyed on the ground. The tight closing of the straits is costing the mullahs several hundred million dollars per day of oil not loaded and sold. Oil slicks around Kharg Island might suggest that Iran has reached the end of its storage capacity and has no place to put its black gold. Maybe the leadership in Tehran has blinked since it can no longer pay its IRGC thugs their monthly salaries. At this point, I don’t know.
What if Donald Trump is once again trying to put the Iranians to sleep? He skipped his son’s wedding to fly back to Washington. He keeps saying that a deal is really close. With whom is he dealing? Do they have the complete support of the fractured Iranian leadership to make a deal that might involve US personnel digging up “nuclear dust” without threat of attack or kidnapping? Is Trump just convincing the Iranians that the war is over so that the next wave of planes can enter a country not expecting further bombs falling from the heavens? Again, I don’t know. I am not privy to the discussions in Washington, but there are a few things that I am willing to assume.
Donald Trump would not make a bad deal for America. His entire career has been one of making deals. Of late, he changed the trajectory of Venezuela for the better and appears ready to do the same with implacable foe Cuba. His tariffs and trade agreements have brought tens or hundreds of billions of dollars into American coffers. He was repulsed by Obama’s sellout deal and has for decades been consistent in demanding that Iran not be allowed to get the bomb. So, with all of the above in mind, does it make sense that he would make a lousy deal that helps the mullahs and makes America’s efforts in attacking Iran a failure? Sounds highly doubtful to me.
But one point I wish to raise is the use of Pakistan as an intermediary. The Islamic country owes Iran a lot of money and will get a discount if a deal is reached. This arrangement follows Qatar being the intermediary between Israel and Hamas, though Qatar is a major benefactor of Hamas and has hosted its leadership for years. While Israelis felt bad for the UAE absorbing so many Iranian drones and missiles, no such feelings were expended on Qatar. It is the source of Hamas’ existence and also the driver for the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of the West.
So is the war over? Is a good deal on the horizon? Will America’s planes and ships soon be heading home? I don’t have an answer for any of these questions. One thing I did learn a long time ago came from a guard at a local bakery. I asked him for directions and he told me, “Go right,” while pointing with his left hand. I followed his hand and not his mouth and got to my destination. Donald Trump is talking about an agreement while his military is primed to strike again. The mullahs will never make a verifiable deal. I think that the kinetic war is by no means over.
Editor’s Note: Do you enjoy Townhall’s conservative reporting that takes on the radical Left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth.
Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member