There is a ceasefire. And then…?
I regret that I was less aware of the late Charlie Kirk during his lifetime. He was extremely bright and, unlike most others, was willing to actively—and respectfully—engage with people whose worldviews were opposite his own. Think about someone like Tucker Carlson. Everyone he has on his podcast is of a similar mind: Hitler was less bad than Churchill, Israel is evil, Bibi Netanyahu is total evil, Islam is good, Christian Zionists are bad, and Donald Trump is controlled by Jews like Mark Levin. Whether Left or Right, people generally interview those who agree with them on all key issues. The one time Carlson interviewed someone who actually knows how to think, namely, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee in Israel, no less, he looked horribly uncomfortable and dodged challenging points like the five-fold growth of the Christian population in Israel.
The grifters who make their livelihoods tormenting Kirk’s wife wish to claim that the late leader of TPUSA was opposed to the U.S. attacking Iran last year. The truth of his answer was that he trusted Donald Trump and that if he attacked Tehran, it was for the good of the USA. And as we enter an attempted ceasefire, I think that Kirk’s words ring true. Donald Trump has had one overriding goal in dealing with Iran or even speaking about it years before he became president: to end it being a threat to the United States. On that score, the two most dangerous elements of the Iranian regime are its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles. President Trump has been clear that he wants to end both programs and has given the Iranians plenty of opportunities to do so. While he is sympathetic to the long-suffering Iranian people and would like Israel to enjoy real peace, he is focused on the needs of the United States, and they involve nuclear weapons perched on long-range ballistic missiles. One standard feature of the Middle East is exceptional pride that leads to no wiggle room or off-ramps. Before the bombing of Iran began, the Iranians were given one last chance to change their tune. Steve Witkoff, whose negotiating style I do not like, even said that they bragged that they had enough enriched uranium for 11 bombs and would never give up on enrichment. The next sound they heard was BOOM.
And as to loud sounds, the past few days were quite weird. We went offline for the last holiday day of Passover late Tuesday. Before the holiday started, we received one of those awful phone warnings that launches had been detected. It went off right next to our grandson. He took flight and had a look of fear on his face. We tried to calm him down, and we always talk about the good missile destroying the bad missile, and that everything is okay. I cried when I thought about the panic I saw when that phone went off. We again went to the parking lot turned bomb shelter at 1:20 Wednesday morning. The alarm went off, and like zombies, we got dressed and waited. When the sirens blared, we ran over to our home-away-from-home, but this time it was different. One boy said that the entire sky was orange. My wife said that she looked at the incoming missile, and it seemed like it was not moving. I saw two interceptors take off and head toward it. As we entered the parking lot, I heard an explosion like I have never heard in my life. I am sure that military folks hear even louder blasts during their careers, but I have never heard anything like it. Everyone with whom we later spoke would swear on a stack of matzahs that the interception took place right over his head and that it was the loudest thing he had ever heard. That was, at the time of this writing, the last missile warning we received.
Tuesday night started in a weird fashion. The 8 PM Washington deadline was 3 AM in Jerusalem. We expected swarms of planes to be flying overhead around 1 AM on their way to end the Iranian regime. Instead, around 10 or 11 at night, we heard—and actually saw—lots of planes heading east. It seemed a little early if the big attack was supposed to be later in the night. After the big boom overhead, we went to sleep. While we are offline during such holidays, we heard that there was a ceasefire developing. Being offline has its advantages, as Charlie Kirk noted in turning off his cellphone for the duration of the Jewish Sabbath. On the other hand, we do lack information. Some of the family went to the Western Wall with the expectation that the ceasefire would allow expanded access. Such was not the case. One guard claimed that the agreement had been signed, while another said that it was signed, but it did not matter: people were restricted by numbers and location—specifically inside the protected area to the left of the open prayer section. This ceasefire was a strange thing—it exists, but nobody trusts it.
Donald Trump is taking a timeout from destroying Iran to give them one last chance to do the two things that he requires: end their nuclear ambitions and limit their outbound projectiles so as to make them less of a threat to the region. If he achieves both goals, he would tell the Iranian people, the worried Gulf states, and Israel, with several dozen dead and lots of damaged buildings, that the war is over, as he got what he came to get. And he would be right. He is the president of the United States and not the Grand Emperor of the World. Forever Wars went on forever because the goals were not simply the safety and well-being of the United States, as we got into society-building and trying to fix ancient feuds. While Donald Trump has stated that he wants the Iranians to have a better government that does not kill them and certainly does not want Kuwait and the UAE absorbing missiles and drones, those points were not on the job description when he ran for president. Jumping on the Trump Train has some big upsides: unwavering support, weapons and aid, and a determination to win not seen for decades in Washington. The downside is that where the president goes, you go. If he sails home, then the war is over. Period.
Will the ceasefire hold? I don’t know. Israelis would love for it to hold. As soon as the holiday went out Wednesday night, my family started to plan—with the rest of the country—where to travel when the airport goes back to full operations. The reality is that businesses and schools are also reopening, so going on holiday will probably be second fiddle to returning to the office and getting the kids to school on time. The Iranians have egos the size of the Strait of Hormuz, and I can’t believe that they will allow for verifiable ends to their nuclear ventures and ballistic missile development. Just as they bragged to Witkoff, I expect their people negotiating in Pakistan to act as if nothing has happened over the past five weeks. Even if they come with dust and debris on their clothes, they will demand tolls for ships passing through the Strait, billions in reparations, and other concessions. They don’t understand that they are getting pummeled in the most one-sided military effort in 80 years (since the Great Marianas Turkey Shoot). The U.S. has just over a dozen dead and recently performed the most amazing pilot extraction.
So will the ceasefire hold? Not if Iran is one of the parties to it.
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