The missile barrages now have their own pattern and protocol, though the number of alerts has been going down daily.
On Sunday, an Iranian missile hit an Israeli bomb shelter’s roof and destroyed the underlying structure. Nine people were killed in the attack. After a thorough analysis of the apparent failure of a public bomb shelter, authorities determined that two people were killed when the warhead exploded on the roof immediately above them. The other seven were killed outside of the bomb shelter but in proximity. Two dozen people walked out of the destroyed shelter. One could ask about those killed: what more could they do? They followed protocols to the letter. But in the end, there is no promise, no guarantee that staying in a bomb shelter or a heavily reinforced room will make everything okay. The projectiles come with one ton of explosives and hit the ground at Mach 5 or more. There were those in the days of Obama who wanted to replace nuclear weapons with high Mach number missiles, as the energy transferred to the target is enormous. Windows miles from the site of the explosion in Beit Shemesh were shattered from the force of the blast.
During the Twelve-Day War, there were two incidents in which an Iranian missile hit a reinforced room in an apartment building, and the occupants were killed. All new Israeli structures must have these “mamadim” which include extra-thick walls and reinforced windows and doors. Older structures in Jerusalem are being given permission to add such rooms, even though during normal times, permitting in the Holy City is very slow and cumbersome. I spend a lot of time thinking about how to neutralize the threat of those projectiles that are not shot down by the various interceptor systems. After the last war, I proposed a swarm of explosive drones that could be moved into position based on the known parabolic trajectory of an incoming missile. I was told that such a system was under consideration by the Israeli development authorities. And while the Arrow, THAAD, and Iron Dome systems are impressive, they are not perfect. The dead in Beit Shemesh are a reminder of this reality. Human minds don’t accept that there is no solution. The real solution is a big nuclear bomb on Iran, but since World War II, mankind has decided that all wars will be fought without access to all available weapons—something that was never true before World War II, when all sides refrained from using poison gas on the battlefield.
The warning systems in place in Israel are advanced but by no means perfect. That which generally happens is that a phone alert comes after missile launches have been detected. The screeching warning is to get people ready for what may come next. As the missiles continue on their 13-15 minute path, locations of expected impacts are determined. After the first warning, one is well advised to get ready to move. Just as a carrier-based jet gives full throttle upon landing in case it misses an arresting wire, so too the locals are primed to move on a moment’s notice. And that notice comes in the form of air raid sirens going berserk. When those go off, there is no waiting. Drop whatever you are doing and get to your protected space. Our current protocol has us leaving the house and heading over to the parking-lot-turned-bomb-shelter in less than two minutes. On our way there, we often see Iranian projectiles to the north of us heading west towards Tel Aviv and the coast. By the time we enter the garage, we witness Iron Dome interceptors taking off with great noise. There are additional noises of larger interceptors going up, and then a series of explosions of varying intensity after the sirens have ceased. We wait a few minutes after the last explosion and then go home. Ten minutes later, we received an official notification that we can leave our safe space. From eight events on Saturday, it is now one to two, as the US and Israel prioritize the destruction of Iranian missile launchers.
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The Iron Dome is not built for hitting projectiles outside of the atmosphere. What we’ve been told is that when an Arrow or other missile destroys an Iranian ballistic missile, the remaining pieces can still be large and potentially dangerous. Iron Dome is meant to hit those pieces as they come down. There are people who make no effort to find a safe space; they figure that statistics are on their side. Others find themselves driving or out and about when the sirens go off and try to find the safest place to become invisible. As there presently is no way to stop the Iranians from flinging their rockets and there is a less than 100 percent method to neutralize those rockets when sent, self-protection is the number one job in Israel. While every life is precious, the loss of 28 lives in the Twelve-Day War is, by all standards, low. SCUD missiles during the Iran-Iraq War often killed dozens to hundreds per projectile. Israel supposedly was prepared for several thousand dead based on its assumptions about missile numbers and damage.
My wife and I went downtown and to the open market “shuk” on Monday (the third day of the war), and both were mostly empty. The light rail, usually packed to the gills, was then not running—the goal being not to have a large concentration of people in one place. More stores were open this time than during last summer’s war, but there were not many buyers—even though the holiday of Purim took place on Tuesday and Wednesday. People feel safest close to their protected spaces, and one never knows when there will be an alert. If the Iranians could only be more Swiss on that point. I went to synagogue for afternoon prayers. I had told myself that if there is an alert, I will pick up my feet and go back to the parking garage. And sure enough, there was the screeching noise on the phone. If I had left, I would have made it to the bomb shelter before the sirens started. But three of our boys were also there. Why do I want to live? I want to live with my family and enjoy every moment with them. So I stayed put and heard the sirens and then the motors of the Iron Dome interceptors and finally the massive explosions from the interceptions. I was sure that I would leave if the first warning arrived, and had I been alone there, I would have left. But with the kids there—why would I want to leave them?
Israelis realize that Iran is the driver for most of the groups that have sworn to destroy the Jewish state: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and more. Destroying the Islamic leadership and possibly having a Jew-neutral or even slightly positive government would be a major upgrade. Hezbollah initially wanted to stay on the sidelines, but like Hitler pushing Mussolini back to fight—and die—in Italy, the terrorists to the north fired weapons and the IDF pounded Lebanon in return. The Lebanese are either cowards or are too weak to deal with Hezbollah; they will lose their country. Israel is too preoccupied for niceties. There is a discussion of a possible ground incursion. What was once the Switzerland of the Middle East will become another loser country like Syria and Iraq. I don’t know of one country that is more advanced, more beautiful, more economically successful or happier after an Islamic takeover. Iran might be the first case in modern history to break Islamic control and offer its citizens a brighter future.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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