The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its August PCE data showing that inflation has not yet peaked — despite now-debunked claims from Speaker Pelosi and the Biden administration — and was worse than Wall Street estimates predicted.
The headline PCE number showed inflation advancing 6.2 percent in the last year with a 0.3 percent increase from July.
The core PCE number that excludes food and energy, what the Federal Reserve looks at to see whether inflation is being tamped-down by — or calls for more — interest rate hikes, advanced 0.6 percent in August for a year-over-year increase of 4.9 percent.
Not the data the Fed wants to see....core PCE deflator comes in hotter than expected and actually rises on a year on year basis. pic.twitter.com/KH1szZ0Wam
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 30, 2022
The August PCE read was estimated to show an advance of 0.5 percent over July’s number for a year-over year increase of 4.7 percent. That is, PCE shows inflation again accelerating to outpace economists’ fears.
The BEA's report outlined which areas saw prices increase and where prices dipped in August:
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent (table 9). Prices for goods decreased 0.3 percent and prices for services increased 0.6 percent. Food prices increased 0.8 percent and energy prices decreased 5.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 6.2 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 8.6 percent and prices for services increased 5.0 percent. Food prices increased 12.4 percent and energy prices increased 24.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent from one year ago.
Fridays numbers means that the Fed is going to keep its foot on the gas when it comes to interest rate hikes, even if it means a worsening recession in order to bring inflation down to the Fed's goal of just two percent.
Looking at recent months, the core PCE price index showed a decrease of 0.1 percent in July, but Friday's report shows that inflation is still raging as the core number swung 0.6 percent in August as costs across the economy continued to increase.
Basically, this is not what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wanted to see after repeated aggressive interest rate hikes. It also dashes most remaining hopes that a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is possible.
So no, inflation was not a non-issue, it wasn't transitory, it hasn't peaked, and it's only getting worse. It's just one of many Biden crises that have caused the president's approval to remain underwater — even plummeting five points in just one week according to a poll by Morning Consult and Politico this week — and why so few Americans trust him and his "Build Back Better" policies to handle the economy.
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