Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden remain the frontrunners of their respective parties a little more than a year away from the 2024 presidential election, according to a new Emerson College survey in Iowa.
But their support is waning.
The latest polling finds both Trump and Biden losing ground since the May Emerson Iowa survey. The 45th president now has 49 percent support in the Republican Caucus compared to the 62 percent support he enjoyed this spring. Support for Biden in the Democratic caucus, meanwhile, dropped from 69 percent in May to 50 percent in early September when the poll was conducted.
In addition to Trump losing ground on the Republican side, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence saw their support decline as well. The two candidates running against Biden—Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson—also lost support.
Sen. Tim Scott, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Doug Burgum saw their support increase since May.
IOWA POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) September 12, 2023
2024 GOP Caucus
Trump 49%
DeSantis 14%
Scott 8%
Haley 7%
Ramaswamy 7%
Pence 3%
Burgum 3%
Christie 2%
6% undecidedhttps://t.co/9CAoxIyp0G pic.twitter.com/jeuRPrAtfl
IOWA POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) September 12, 2023
2024 Democratic Caucus
Biden 50%
Kennedy 9%
Williamson 7%
34% undecidedhttps://t.co/9CAoxIyWQe
“Biden has lost some support in the Democratic caucus, with a large number of voters being undecided,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. “Young voters and women voters are two groups who have lower support for Biden than their counterparts: only 38% of Democratic voters under 30 support Biden in a caucus, and 41% of women are undecided.”
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Though Trump and Biden lost support, no other candidate has been able to gain enough ground to become a viable alternative, Kimball added. "Republicans saw DeSantis fall back into the pack, as the vote splintered amongst a crowded field, and Kennedy and Williamson have failed to gain traction in Iowa," he said.
In a hypothetical presidential matchup between Trump and Biden, the former Republican president earned more support among Iowa voters than the commander in chief, 50 percent to 39 percent. While 11 percent are undecided, Trump's position in Iowa relative to Biden looks the same as it was in May, when he also enjoyed an 11-point lead.
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