Why Team Trump Is Smiling – and So Are Democrats

🚨NEW FOX BUSINESS POLLS🚨
2024 GOP nominee preference among Iowa GOP caucus-goers. #FoxNewsSunday https://t.co/WrDOWg5lFphttps://t.co/WrDOWg5lFp pic.twitter.com/1Slcr7AHDi

— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) July 23, 2023

🚨NEW FOX BUSINESS POLLS🚨
2024 GOP nominee preference among South Carolina GOP primary voters.#FoxNewsSunday https://t.co/Ml8Wgjqlgb pic.twitter.com/y2iVDrn76o

— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) July 23, 2023

There are other components of the poll to dissect, like a majority of South Carolina Republican voters saying a candidate skipping a debate would be a sign of weakness, not strength – and Ron DeSantis standing as the clear leader in backup choices among Trump supporters. I've also seen people noting a bit of a Tim Scott surge in Iowa, with Nikki Haley edging into a distant second place in her home state. The overwhelming takeaway, however, is that Trump is the very heavy GOP favorite, despite (or because of) the raft of existing and looming legal trouble he faces. No one else is close at the moment. I wrote last week that for Ron DeSantis to eat away at Trump's lead, he'll need to consolidate the non-Trump vote and win over a sizable chunk of "soft" Trump backers. Based on these surveys, the Florida governor is doing neither of those things right now.

Meanwhile, with another indictment or two likely coming Trump's way, the former president's image among the wider electorate has taken another distinctly negative slide. He's been back in the news, quite a lot, and his favorability rating is even worse than Joe Biden's dreadfully bad number:

Pew Research: Favorability Ratings

Biden
Favorable 39% (-4)
Unfavorable 60% (+5)
.
Trump
Favorable 35% (-3)
Unfavorable 63% (+3)

[Change vs July '22]

n=8,480 | 07/10-16 | R28/D28/I27https://t.co/X1L9DPNy7r pic.twitter.com/UQEKe68let

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2023

Monmouth: Trump's’ net-negative favorability rating (-27) is the lowest in poll's history

Trump
Favorable: 36% (-5 from Nov. '20)
Unfavorable: 63% (+9)
Net: -27%
——
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Biden leads Trump 47-40 on "definitely or probably" would vote for"https://t.co/QLzU7ZesTF pic.twitter.com/pM8rOYEhyV

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 20, 2023

Trump’s national unfavorable rating has risen to its highest point since the aftermath of Jan. 6, 2021, according to the @FiveThirtyEight polling average. https://t.co/C3KoX97zuY pic.twitter.com/upVwrQalvn

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 18, 2023

One thing I've noticed in the Biden-Trump rematch polling is despite the margins bouncing around (most show Biden ahead, a few surveys are tied, Trump leads in a handful), the former president's vote share is remarkably consistent. It lands in the 40-45 percent range against Biden:  

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So far, quite a consistent vote share range for DJT. Both men have saturated name ID & have already faced each other in a head-to-head matchup. Next time could be different, but looking pretty familiar right now: https://t.co/9mmqPgoCc0 pic.twitter.com/c7l0PCY8Gy

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 20, 2023

For reference, Trump won less than 47 percent of the national vote in 2020, losing by four points. The national polling average slightly overstated Biden's victory margin, but they were generally correct. The national polls were almost exactly bang-on in 2022. None of this means that a Trump general election win is impossible. Events could align for another upset victory, as they did in 2016 – especially if widely-unpopular "Bidenomics" delivers a recession. But against such a weak incumbent, it stands to reason that the opposition party could increase its chances of victory substantially by nominating someone other than a universally known and polarizing figure who lost the same head-to-head contest last time, and whose personal favorability is 20-30 points underwater. DeSantis supporters contend their guy is the smarter bet, citing data like this:

1. Remember all those polls showing DeSantis out-performing Trump that Team Trump spent weeks dismissing? ⁰⁰Yeah, well, it’s going to be hard for them to dismiss this one 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘀 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿!⁰⁰A thread… https://t.co/2MZIi1LVQm

— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 21, 2023

Perhaps they're right, but to test that proposition, DeSantis has to prevail in the primaries. I'll refer you back to the numbers above. Finally, if the Democrats end up going the distance with Biden and Harris (think about the likelihood of a Harris presidency), it's not just conceivable but very likely that they will attempt the 2024 version of the basement strategy: 

It’s wild how hard Biden is doubling down on the basement strategy for 2024.

There are 3 people on the re-election campaign and they are having voters take pictures with *cardboard cutouts* of Joe Biden. https://t.co/W1yJfHApwZ pic.twitter.com/ztFw5zaBih

— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) July 23, 2023

It's not really that wild, in the sense that...it worked. They made the last election about the incumbent, got out of the way, and won. That will be harder to pull off in a non-pandemic setting, and with Biden as the incumbent, but they'll try. The midterm outcomes suggest it could again be a successful approach. The idea will be to let the other guy stand in the limelight and consume most of the political oxygen, and subject voters to the unpopular incumbents (who don't help themselves when they speak) as little as possible. It's not at all far-fetched to envision them just letting all this play out, month after month:

“It’s easy to imagine — as Biden aides have been privately discussing — that Trump spends part of his 2024 campaign having to shuttle from one court date to the next, standing trial in multiple cases, spawning negative headline after negative headline” https://t.co/HtkELNTWks

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) July 21, 2023

2024 GOP primary calendar:

Jan. 15: Iowa
Feb. 3: South Carolina
Feb. 6: Nevada/New Hampshire
March 5: Super Tuesday
March 25: Trump hush money trial
May 20: Trump classified documents trial
July 15: Republican national convention

— ryan teague beckwith (@ryanbeckwith) July 21, 2023

Trump's legal thicket could have a double benefit, from Democrats' perspective: The indictments could further ingratiate the former president to the Republican base, guaranteeing his nomination, then the drama surrounding the trials and other related wrangling could dominate the general election season. Democrats would prefer to run against Trump again because they think that would maximize their chances to win. This is therefore all welcome news to them. And most of the "news" media will do everything in its collective power to keep the spotlight on Trump-related controversies and scandals while ignoring and downplaying the sitting president's serious ethical vulnerabilities. That's corrupt and unfair, but it's also reality. Relatedly, I'll leave you with this:

Does noticing criminal activity, alleged corruption, and verifiable presidential lies on said subjects, constitute “personal attacks”?

And if the vaunted “family story” entails horrible treatment of a young girl, are the people who point it out really the true villains? https://t.co/GT4AucdEcC

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 23, 2023

New York Times readers are the most criminally misinformed people on the planet. pic.twitter.com/feZNbTJZC6

— Mollie (@MZHemingway) July 23, 2023