Jon Ralston's prediction
that Reid will win on Tuesday. In response to my post below
, she offered four points in support of the Angle camp's strong belief that their candidate will beat Reid:
(1) Despite Democrats' ~5.5 percent registration advantage in this race, they only lead Republicans in early statewide voting turnout by 2 percent. "This shows that at the very least, we are keeping up with Reid's ground game," she said.
(2) Republicans have a history of showing up in greater numbers on Election Day. She said the expected higher GOP turnout on Tuesday is a significant factor, and called efforts to minimize the importance of Election Day proper, "wishful thinking." (Roughly 60-70 percent of all votes have already been cast via early voting).
(3) Although she conceded that some Republican voters will break for Harry Reid, she argued that it's far more likely that Democrats will cross over and vote for Angle.
(4) The biggest indicator that the Angle staffer said Ralston is "willfully ignoring" is Angle's very strong performance among independents. She cited the latest poll from Mason-Dixon
, which shows Angle winning independents by a 17-point margin, which she said is consistent with the campaign's internal numbers. If independent voters choose Angle by such a wide margin, she said, Reid's celebrated ground game and Democrats' slight early voting edge won't be enough to save Reid.
I just got off the phone with a top Angle aide who strongly contested Nevada political analyst