Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of October 20 | |||
October 21 | |||
Existing Home Sales - September | 5.09M | 5.05 | 5.10 |
October 22 | |||
Consumer Price Index - September | 0.0%' | -0.2 | 0.0 |
Core CPI | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
October 23 | |||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 281K | 264 | 280 |
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 57.5 | 57.5 | 57.0 |
FHFA House Price Index - August | 0.4% | 0.1 | |
Leading Indicators | 0.7% | 0.2 | 0.6 |
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
October 24 | |||
New Home Sales - September | .465M | 504 | .470 |
Week of October 27 | |||
October 27 | |||
Pending Home Sale Index - September | 104.7 | 104.7 | 105.0 |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 11.5 | 10.8 | |
October 28 | |||
Durable Goods Sales - September | 0.1% | -18.2 | 0.7 |
S&P Case/Shiller Index - August | |||
Twenty City M/M | 0.4% | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.2 |
Twenty City Y/Y | 5.8 | 6.7 | |
Consumer Confidence | 88.4 | 86.0 | 87.7 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 10.0 | 12.0 | |
October 29 | |||
October 30 | |||
GDP - Q3 (a) | 2.8% | 4.6 | 3.1 |
GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
October 31 | |||
Personal Income - September | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Personal Spending | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Employment Cost Index - Q3 | 0.4% | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
Chicago PMI | 59.5 | 60.5 | 59.5 |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r) | 86.4 | 86.4 | |
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |
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