Morici Forecasts for Coming Week

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Jun 15, 2014 12:01 AM

Week of June 16

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

June 16

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

15.3

19.01

15.0

Industrial Production - May

0.4%

-0.6

0.5

Capacity Utilization

78.9

78.6

78.9

Manufacturing Output

0.4

-0.4

0.5

NAHB Index - June

47

45

47

June 17

Consumer Price Index - May

0.1%

0.3

0.2

Core CPI

0.1

0.2

0.2

Housing Starts - May

1.050M

1.072

1.036

Building Permits

1.065

1.080

1.062

June 18

Current Account - Q1

-$103.3B

81.1

-99.8

June 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

314K

317

313

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

13.5

15.4

13

Leading Indicators

0.6%

0.4

0.6

June 20

Week of June 23

June 23

Existing Home Sales - May

4.80M

4.65

4.71

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.5

0.34

June 24

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.5%

0.7

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

1.5%

0.9

1.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

1.2

1.1

Twenty City Y/Y

11.4

12.4

11.8

New Home Sales - May

457K

433

450

Consumer Confidence

83.0

83

83

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

6.0

7.0

June 25

Durable Goods Sales - May

0.2%

0.6

0.1

GDP - Q1 (f)

-1. 6%

-1.0

-1.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.3

1.3

1.3

June 26

Personal Income - May

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.4

-0.1

0.4

June 27

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

81.3

81.2

82.4

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.