"The pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated." Those were the carefully chosen words of the Federal Reserve Board after its meeting Tuesday. Translation into English: We wuz wrong.
So were a lot of people, including departing White House economics adviser Christina Romer, who wrote that the Obama Democrats' February 2009 stimulus package would hold unemployment below 8 percent.
It wasn't just administration spokesmen who expected a solid recovery. California economist Bill Watkins in newgeography.com recalls a conference last fall in which all the other economists presented rosy scenarios and only he forecast extended malaise. He was relieved that his colleagues didn't pelt him with tomatoes.
It's easy for Republicans to make partisan hay of all this. They can point out, as Bush administration economist Larry Lindsey does in the Weekly Standard, that the congressional Democrats' stimulus package was not the timely, targeted and temporary measure recommended by national economic director Larry Summers.
They can add that the threat of pending regulations interpreting the health care and financial regulation bills and of pending tax increases as the Bush cuts expire have created a climate of uncertainty in which consumers don't consume, banks don't lend and businesses don't create jobs.
All true. But in this summer of unrecovery, it's still important to understand how so many smart people got so much so wrong.
One answer comes from economist Arnold Kling writing for american.com. Kling argues that the collapse of the housing market and the financial crisis disrupted what had been "a sustainable pattern of specialization and trade" and that we need to let the market economy develop a new one.
Instead, the policies of the Obama Democrats have been aimed at propping up the old order -- holding up housing prices and the mortgage market, keeping the Detroit auto companies in place, maintaining the lush standard of living of public employee union members (the purpose of the $26 billion the House was summoned back to Washington to approve Tuesday).
Maintaining unsustainable patterns of production, Kling writes, prevents the trial-and-error process of private investment that creates new jobs and patterns of production that will be sustainable.
Across the Atlantic, Marc De Vos, director of the Itinera Institute, a Brussels think tank, advances similar arguments in his book "After the Meltdown." The financial crisis, he argues, has brought a revival of "state capitalism," in which governments "have an increased and distorting role in economics."
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