Michael Barone

The political numbers tell a grim story. In five decades of closely following American politics, I have never seen the Democratic Party in worse shape. Democrats trail in polls in 11 of the 18 Democratic-held Senate seats up this fall and lead in polls in none of the 18 Republican-held seats.

Republicans currently lead Democrats in most generic polls -- which party's candidate will you support for the House of Representatives? -- even though Democrats have almost always held the lead since Gallup began asking the question in 1950. Incumbents usually lead in individual House race polls. But polls have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republican challengers in Arkansas, Indiana, Massachusetts and North Dakota.

Of course opinion can change, and the balance of enthusiasm, which currently favors Republicans, could shift. But if the election were held today, the numbers tell me that Democrats would fare worse than they have in every election since 1946.

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But if I have never seen the Democratic Party in worse shape, I have seen the Republican Party in better shape -- in 1972 (when Richard Nixon unaccountably failed to boost his party), at various points in the 1980s and 1990s, in 2002 and 2004, when enthusiasm for George W. Bush eluded most political reporters but showed up in the election returns.

The numbers suggest that the Republicans could well wind up with a majority of House seats next year, and perhaps more than they had at any time between 1994 and 2006. And they could even wind up with a majority of Senate seats, as well, though that would require winning all the currently close races and maybe a couple more.

In that case, they may find themselves asking the question the Robert Redford character asked at the end of the movie "The Candidate:" "What do I do now?"

Public opinion points them in a direction that could be politically dangerous. Most Americans are dismayed at the big government programs of the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership. They are upset by the specter of federal budget deficits that threaten to double the national debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product.

That means that Republican majorities would have a mandate to cut spending sharply. But spending cuts can be politically perilous.

Some cuts are obvious. A Republican Congress would not channel billions to state and local governments to bail out public employee unions, as the 2009 stimulus package did and the House's current "jobs" bill would.


Michael Barone

Michael Barone, senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner (www.washingtonexaminer.com), is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. COPYRIGHT 2011 THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER. DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

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