In less than forty-eight hours, Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will be winning re-election for a second term as the Capo Di Capi of the Garden State. The only big questions facing political prognosticators are how many dozens of points will he win by and who will have voted for him? Other than that, nothing much is of interest here. Unless, you consider what happens in each of the twenty-one Legislative Districts in New Jersey a barometer of how Christie might do on the national level appealing to Democrats, Blacks and Women.
Of those three groups, Blacks are the most key to the future of Governor Chris Christie and the future of his Republican Party. There is a modern-day political saw that “Winning Black Voters helps you win Moderate suburban Voters and they help you win Women voters.” At least in the United States’ Northeastern states and the West Coast. According to Politisite.com, the current major polls looking at Christie appeal to the Black vote is as such:
Fairleigh Dickinson - Non-White – 33%
Quinnipiac University – Black - 29%
Rutgers University – Non-White – 41%
Stockton College – Black – 17.4%
Marist College/NBC has Christie’s approval rating among black voters at 64%
Politisite’s own analysts believe that the Black vote for Christie will be lower than each of these polls except for the Stockton College poll and the Governor will come in at 19%.
Based on how this campaign has proceeded over the past year and especially the past month or so, Christie will benefit from a sizable increase of support in the Black community but nowhere near 30% of their votes. Please consider that the Governor has pretty much avoided campaigning in cities not named Newark and has laid off pushing his best campaign issue of School Choice for at least the past six months. He also committed a major faux pas by not visiting or taking a lead role on fixing Trenton Central High School’s mold and dilapidation problems which came to a head over the summer. The fact that this school is in New Jersey’s own Capital City and is located two miles from Christie’s Statehouse office makes this almost astonishing.