Yesterday was a classic summer day session. While they say, ‘never short a dull market,’ there is no doubt this market is looking for a boost. Big tech buyers are the most determined group as everyone else seems to be out on the beach.
Market Breadth | NYSE | NASDAQ |
Advancing | 1,252 | 2,058 |
Declining | 2,071 | 2,298 |
52 Week High | 109 | 121 |
52 Week Low | 29 | 76 |
Up Volume | 1.39B | 2.36B |
Down Volume | 1.62B | 1.47B |
It’s Raining Work
My goodness, I just think there were as many as 10,000,000 jobs in June. It’s amazing, yet the nation’s narrative is in the grips of an economic backdrop akin to the Great Depression period. A lot of folks want to keep spending and usher in new social welfare programs. But when 4.1 million folks are quitting their jobs in a single month, I’d say enough of the nation is doing fine enough not to abandon capitalism.
To see the chart, click here.
A lot of money has already been printed. Even though there are millions of fewer pre-pandemic jobs, the nation has somehow managed to spend, as if there were never any lockdowns. Of course, the market loves this free money, but there are socioeconomic costs.
To see the chart, click here.
The Fed Keeps Looking Yonder
Consumer inflation expectations from the latest New York Federal Reserve continue to edge higher, which is a serious dilemma for the Federal Reserve.
Combing through Democratic details, those under the age of forty and earnings more than $100,000 have the least amount of inflation concerns.
Even with all of this, the Fed will continue to avoid tapering and err on the side of letting inflation run too hot.
Expectations I Age | <40 | 40 to 59 | >59 |
Range | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% |
Expectations I Income | <$50,000 | $50K to $100K | >$100,000 |
Range | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
Portfolio Approach
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Today’s Session
It’s another quiet morning for the market, but there continues to be anxiousness beneath the surface. In addition, economic data, while it won’t dominate headlines, are intriguing and have to be added to calculations for the economy and Federal Reserve.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in July to 99.7, a decrease of 2.8 points, reversing June’s 2.9-point gain. Six of the 10 components declined, three improved, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased seven points to 76, indicating owners’ views are held with more certainty than in earlier months.
Productive: Is Miracle Fading?
Second quarter productivity came in at 2.3%, which is a pretty big miss against consensus of 3.5%.
Productivity | Labor | Output | Hours | Comp | Real Comp | ULC |
2Q21 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 3.3 | -4.8 | 1.0 |
1Q21 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | -2.2 | -2.8 |
2Q20 | 1.9 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 2.0 | -2.7 | 0.1 |
To see the chart, click here.
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