Betting Odds Have This Republican Neck And Neck With Trump For 2024 GOP Nomination

Posted: Jun 01, 2021 6:45 PM
Betting Odds Have This Republican Neck And Neck With Trump For 2024 GOP Nomination

Source: (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Oddmakers are currently pegging Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis as an even favorite for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, right along with former President Donald Trump.

According to betting behavior aggregator, Democrats are slightly favored to maintain the presidency in 2024, and the top four favorites are, in order, Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden, Trump, and DeSantis. However, when it comes to who Republicans ultimately pick to represent them, the Florida governor is neck and neck with the former president.

Via press release:

The Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election with 10/11 odds (52.4% implied probability). Republicans are close behind with 1/1 odds (50%) ...

Kamala Harris is the current favorite to win in 2024 with 7/2 odds (22.2% implied probability). She’s followed by Joe Biden at 4/1 (20%), Donald Trump at 7/1 (12.5%) and Ron DeSantis at 12/1 (7.7%) ... 

As for the Republican Nomination, Trump and DeSantis are tied for the lead at 4/1 odds (20% implied probability). Nikki Haley follows at 7/1 to be the Republican Nominee in 2024 (12.5%).

Yes, it's early, very early, but is this much of a surprise to anyone? From being one of the first to open his state and get rid of useless COVID restrictions to banning vaccine passports, fighting Big Tech, and protecting women's athletics, DeSantis is making all the right moves as the governor of a major U.S. state and endearing himself to conservatives along the way. 

He's also a likable politician who ostensibly believes in nearly all of Trump's policy positions without the negatives that Trump brings because of his personality. To Republicans looking to win in 2024, DeSantis could be a real alternative to the former president. The question, of course, is whether both men will run.

Moving to a closer election cycle, the same betting behavior aggregator currently predicts that Republicans will retake both houses of Congress in 2022.

Oddsmakers suggest Republicans are more likely than Democrats to win majority control of the U.S. Congress in the 2022 midterms, according to betting industry analysts at (See Disclaimer Below). Republicans are the 1/2 favorites to win control of the House of Representatives (66.7% implied probability), and 73/100 favorites to win the Senate (57.8%). The most likely outcome of the 2022 midterms is a Republican-controlled House and Senate, as this has 20/19 odds to be the case (48.7%).