Iowa was once something of a swing state, though former and potentially future President Donald Trump won easily won there in 2016 and 2020. George W. Bush also won reelection thanks to Iowa in 2004, even after they didn't won for him in 2000. Iowa also holds a special status as the first primary contest with the Iowa Caucus, that is until Democrats upended the schedule for this cycle. There's now a new poll out to do with the Hawkeye State that could cast doubt on how easy a time Trump has for winning the state's six electoral votes.
A poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa has Democrats all excited and has become a trending topic over X because it shows that Trump's lead has shrunk to a 4-point lead against Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-43 percent. He also leads with Independent voters by similar margins, at 41-36 percent.
The poll surveyed 656 likely voters from September 8-11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
📊 IOWA GE: @jaselzer/@DMRegister
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
Last poll vs Biden (6/14): Trump +18
#12 (2.8/3.0) | 656 LV | 9/8-11 | ±3.8%https://t.co/YjLMNSBLt4 pic.twitter.com/YHLo9LPgXJ
"Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows," a write-up from the Des Moines Register declares. "The nationally recognized Iowa Poll's first test of Kamala Harris' strength against Donald Trump indicates she's a more formidable opponent than President Biden in solid-red Iowa."
In June, Trump led President Joe Biden by 50-32 points.
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The write-up considers the results from the poll to be "a dramatic turnaround," and pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co is quoted as raising concerns for Trump. "I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable for Trump," she said. "The race has tightened significantly."
That Harris was going to perform better than Biden and inspire more confidence was always going to be the case. It's also especially noteworthy that this is the first poll of its kind conducted since Biden was forced out of the race by his fellow Democrats less than a month after his disastrous debate performance on June 27 against Trump.
The poll's own write-up notes that this poll "puts the race more closely in line with the 2020 election results, which ultimately saw Trump win Iowa by about 8 percentage points over Biden." While Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 53.1 percent to 44.9 percent, the Des Moines Register actually showed the candidates tied at 47 percent each in their poll for September 2020, though a subsequent poll released in the final weeks before the election showed Trump leading by 48-41 percent.
Selzer's last poll was Trump +7. When she had Iowa tied in September, other pollsters at the time actually had Biden ahead there. It's a snapshot in time. But it reinforces the other strong Harris polls of late as an indicator of where things are right now. But things can change. pic.twitter.com/CtTpavpeNS
— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) September 15, 2024
Even with the race having "tightened significantly" in the just over seven weeks before Election Day, that doesn't mean Iowa is suddenly that much more in play for Harris and the Democrats. In sharing his take on the Des Moines Register poll, Cygnal's Brent Buchanan mentioned as part of his daily takes for Monday that the poll showed the candidates tied four years ago.
"At this point, four years ago, Biden was tied with Trump in Iowa, but Trump won by 8. This is actually a pretty good poll for Trump comparatively. The Trump polling sugar high has worn off, and the race is now more competitive. But Trump still continues to poll ahead of four years ago," Buchanan noted.
While Harris is behind Trump in the poll, albeit narrowly, the rest of the results aren't too great for her.
By double digits, Iowans disapprove of the job Harris has been doing as vice president. Just 41 percent of the job she's doing in her current role as part of the Biden-Harris administration, while 55 percent disapprove. She's also viewed favorably by 43 percent of Iowans, while she's viewed unfavorably by 54 percent. Trump's numbers are slightly better, as he's viewed favorably by 48 percent of Iowans, and unfavorably by 51 percent.
More adults say they view Trump "very favorably" than they do Harris, at 28 and 23 percent, respectively.
The poll also found that majorities believe Iowa is going in the wrong direction and that they are worse off financially. While the findings are better than they were from June, it's still not a good sign for Harris. This too could have been influenced by Biden no longer being the nominee.
As the write-up mentions:
As the election nears, just 24% of Iowa adults believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 69% believe it has gotten off on the wrong track. Another 7% are not sure.
That’s an improvement from June, when 17% said the U.S. was headed in the right direction and 77% said the country was on the wrong track.
...
[Voter Mark] Franks is also among the 46% of Iowans who say they are worse off financially today than they were four years ago. Just 21% say they are better off, while 31% say they are about the same.
The percentage of those who say they are worse off is the highest it’s been in the eight times the Iowa Poll has asked the question. The previous high was in both January and November 2009 during the Great Recession, when 40% said they felt worse off than they had four years ago.
Not only do 46 percent of Iowa adults say they are "worse off" from four years ago, but just 21 percent say that they are "better off."
Such findings are why it would be even more wise for the Trump-Vance campaign to tie Harris, as the sitting vice president, to the Biden-Harris administration. They might also want to capitalize on Biden's low approval numbers. Just 33 percent approve of the job he's doing, while 64 percent disapprove.
Those questions surveyed 811 Iowa adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
