President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday in a letter posted to his X account, and not long after endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. Republicans were quick to react with outrage over the inherently undemocratic process of trying to make Harris the nominee, as well as how Harris covered up for Biden's cognitive failures. There have been numerous calls for accountability, even articles of impeachment filed against the vice president. What about do the American people think?
On Thursday, YouGov/Times of London released a poll of registered voters. It was conducted July 22-23, just after Biden announced he was dropping out of the race. A write-up for the poll highlights how former and potentially future President Donald Trump leads Harris by two points, with third-party candidates also on the ballot. Trump enjoys 46 percent support, compared to Harris' 44 percent support and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s 4 percent.
Trump also leads Harris with Independents, 45-37 percent.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: YouGov/@thetimes
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 25, 2024
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟩 Stein: 1%
#4 (2.9/3.0) | 1,170 RV | 7/22-23 | ±3.2%https://t.co/AVAcwWxtfd pic.twitter.com/m34KFmyIrm
Other findings of the poll speak to a sense of cautious optimism for the Trump campaign. Perhaps the most telling part of the poll speaks to how many voters believe that Harris was complicit in a cover-up.
A majority of voters, 54 percent, believe that "there was a cover-up of Joe Biden's health," including 60 percent of Independents. The only demographics where a majority or plurality did not believe there was a cover-up includes Democrats and liberals.
The poll not only asked that question, but also asked who was "involved." Ninety-two percent believe Harris was at least a little bit involved, with 68 percent saying she was involved "a great deal," 17 percent saying "somewhat," and 7 percent saying "a little." Majorities of every demographic believes Harris is at least "a little" bit involved.
She isn't even seen as the most involved, though. Here are other parties whom voters saw as being complicit:
- Ninety-six percent saw Biden's family as being at least a little bit involved, which makes sense given that it was First Lady Jill Biden and son Hunter Biden who kept him from stepping aside for as long as they did. Eighty-four percent said the family was involved "a great deal," while 9 percent said "somewhat" and 3 percent said "a little."
- Next is the White House staff, with many aides being not only shamefully complicit, but also engaging in gaslighting about the president's condition. Seventy-seven percent of voters see them as being "a great deal" involved, while 14 percent see them as "somewhat" involved, and 4 percent said they were "a little" involved.
- Harris is tied with Democrats in Congress when it comes to how many voters regard them to have been involved in the cover-up. Sixty-one percent say they were "a great deal" involved, while 23 percent say they were "somewhat involved," and 8 percent say they were "a little" involved. Many then went on to be reportedly involved in pushing Biden out, such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
- Although this number should likely be higher, 88 percent still believe that the media was at least a little bit involved, with 59 percent saying they were "a great deal" involved. Twenty percent say they were "somewhat" involved, and 9 percent say they were "a little" involved. The media also enjoys the greatest number of voters saying they were "not at all" involved, with 8 percent saying so.
In his articles of impeachment against the vice president, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) made reference not only to Harris' failures with the border crisis, but with keeping Biden's condition hidden from the American people. Ogles has also called on Biden to resign and for Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment if the president will not do so on his own.
The second article references "breach of public trust," and claims that Harris "knowingly misled" the public and Congress about "the physical and cognitive well-being" of the president.
The articles also bring up Harris' refusal to invoke the 25th Amendment as well as answer questions about Biden's "tragic cognitive decline."
"In all of this, Kamala Devi Harris breached the public trust in failing basic expectations of transparency and demonstrating a severe lack of integrity," the articles mention.
My articles of impeachment against Kamala Harris are written to be brought up as privileged at any time. This is more than sending a message; it’s the right thing to do.
— Rep. Andy Ogles (@RepOgles) July 25, 2024
Kamala must be impeached. pic.twitter.com/gc4WEwTj5B
This looks to be an angle that the Trump campaign is going for as well. In covering the poll, the New York Post highlighted a post from the Trump campaign speaking to a sense of a cover-up from Harris.
The ad was posted to X approximately one hour after Biden's letter withdrawing from the race was posted to the platform.
Kamala was in on it. She covered up Joe's obvious mental decline. Kamala knew Joe couldn't do the job, so she did it. Look what she got done: a border invasion, runaway inflation, the American Dream dead. pic.twitter.com/H3Oyew0ug9
— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) July 21, 2024
The poll poses a problem for Harris in that although she may have enough delegate support to become the official nominee, just 50 percent of voters believe she's the best replacement. Twenty-two percent said "other." Seventy-seven percent of Harris' fellow Democrats believe she's the best pick.
There's plenty of good news for Trump throughout the poll. When it comes to findings specific to the race, voters overwhelmingly believe Trump will win over Harris. A plurality, 33 percent, say Trump will "definitely" win, while 18 percent say he will "probably" win. Just 15 percent say Harris will "definitely" win, while 14 percent say she "probably" will win.
There is also a stark contrast in the confidence that Republicans have in Trump winning compared to the confidence that Democrats have about their presumptive nominee, though it's worth wondering if that will change once Harris becomes the official nominee.
While 67 percent of Republicans believe Trump will "definitely" win, just 33 percent of Democrats believe Harris will "definitely" win. A small plurality of Independents, 29 percent, believe Trump will "definitely" win, and 24 percent believe he "probably" will win.
That being said, Republicans ought to be careful to not use such findings as an excuse to become complicit.
The poll asked voters which candidate they would prefer on key issues between Trump and Harris, with Trump enjoying likely insurmountable leads in top issues such as the economy (+10) and immigration (+12).
Who do you trust most to handle these issues?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 25, 2024
The Economy
🟥 Trump 51% (+10)
🟦 Harris 41%
Immigration
🟥 Trump 52% (+12)
🟦 Harris 40%
.
Foreign policy
🟥 Trump 49% (+7)
🟦 Harris 42%
Abortion
🟦 Harris 51% (+14)
🟥 Trump 37%
.
Crime
🟥 Trump 49% (+9)
🟦 Harris 40%
.… https://t.co/DgltBStoud pic.twitter.com/Q6zPGAGKxh
Trump is also regarded as much more of a "strong leader" than Harris, with 45 percent saying he is "very strong" and 38 percent saying Harris is "very weak" as a leader. Just 22 percent say she is "very strong" as a leader. Far more Republicans regard Trump as a strong leader, with 85 percent saying he's "very strong" and another 11 percent saying he's "somewhat strong." Just 46 percent of Harris' fellow Democrats regard her as "very strong," while 44 percent say she's "somewhat strong."
Biden provided something of a non-explainer on Wednesday as to why he dropped out of the race, which looks to supposedly be so that the Democratic Party can have an easier time winning in November. Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond also pointed to how donors weren't willing to contribute to Biden after his disastrous June 27 debate with Trump. Not only does Trump still hold a small lead against Harris, though one within the margin of error at this time, other results show replacing Biden might not make much of a difference.
Voters are evenly split as to if Harris "has a better or worse chance than Joe Biden to defeat Donald Trump in the election for President." While 34 percent believe she is more likely, 33 percent believe she is less likely to defeat Trump. Sixty-four percent of Democrats do believe she is more likely to defeat Trump, though.
Another question also asked, "Would you personally rather have had Joe Biden or Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for President?" A plurality of voters, 37 percent, said it makes "no difference," while 31 prefer Harris to Biden. Twenty-two percent of Democrats say it makes "no difference," while 53 percent prefer Harris to Biden.
The poll was conducted July 22-23 with 1,170 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
