UPDATE: Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race.
***
As if the Democratic Party’s civil war over Joe Biden's candidacy isn’t bad enough news for the party, it gets worse in the states where Biden must win to secure re-election. There is not one battleground state where Biden is leading. Some he’s kept it within the margin of error, but that’s likely to change after an excellent convention that followed an assassination attempt on the former president.
Biden, who already has an atrocious approval rating, contracted COVID again, canceling his Nevada campaign trip. As he recovers in isolation, Democrats have been rushing to declare that they hope he steps aside. Voter enthusiasm among Democrats has bottomed out, so field operations cannot be successfully carried out in these crucial states because no one wants to phone bank, knock on doors, or help send out mailers. Tim Alberta shared this horror story on MSNBC on July 18, the conclusion of the Republican convention (via Fox News):
MSNBC guest remarks at the unprecedented enthusiasm gap between parties during a presidential election:
— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) July 18, 2024
"I've never seen an enthusiasm gap like the one we're witnessing in the Summer of this election year. I've heard horror stories from people on the ground in Michigan,… pic.twitter.com/0nGhYElmUC
"I've never seen an enthusiasm gap like the one we're witnessing in the summer of this election year," he said.
"I've heard horror stories from people on the ground in Michigan, in Pennsylvania, in Arizona, about just striking out time and time again as local Democratic Party chapters, county chapters have tried to get people to come in and phone bank, get mail going, knock on doors. They can't do it. They can't find people," the reporter added.
If Biden were suddenly replaced with another candidate, Alberta said the pivot would lead to a "jolt of immediate energy," enthusiasm, and donor cash that would alter the race for both parties.
"If Biden were to step aside and if Democrats had a new standard-bearer atop the ticket, you've got to expect that they would see a massive, historic fundraising surge of their own, which is one reason among many that so many elected officials at this point are pressuring the president to step aside," he continued.
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This is all good for Trump and the Republicans, but we still have weeks until Election Day. Keep campaigning as if we’re down five points, and don’t get complacent.
Keep fighting and win this thing.
1. Arizona (+7)
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) July 18, 2024
2. Georgia (+4)
3. Michigan (+2)
4. Nevada (+4)
5. North Carolina (+4)
6. Pennsylvania (+3)
7. Wisconsin (+5) https://t.co/YKtWxCHBxc
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