While he still insists on remaining in the race, at least for now but perhaps for not much longer, President Joe Biden continues to face some catastrophic poll results. Even if former and potentially future President Donald Trump ends up running away with this election, Republicans still cannot afford to take anything for granted. Even with such major events and questions, such as Trump's conviction and the assassination attempt against him, as well as Biden's disastrous debate performance and calls for him to drop it, the swing state polls still look to be the one to eaych.
Earlier on Thursday, Leah covered how an Emerson College poll shows Trump ahead over Biden in seven swing states. With third-party candidates factored in, Trump enjoys a lead in the following states:
- Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
- Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
- Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
- Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
- Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
Emerson also did a poll on Virginia, which is now considered a swing state as well, despite how the commonwealth has voted for a Democrat every presidential election since 2008. Earlier this week we covered how various polls thus far have shown mixed results for Virginia. This Emerson poll, however, shows Trump leading Biden by 45-43 percent. With third-party candidates, he leads 43-38 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. enjoying 8 percent support, and another 8 percent undecided.
InsiderAdvantage also released a swing state poll on Thursday. Trump leads Biden by 49-45 percent in Biden's home state of Pennsylvania, by 49-42 percent in Nevada, and by 49-44 percent in Arizona. These look to be consistent with other polls.
🇺🇲 Swing States Poll: @InsiderPolling
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 18, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 45%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+7)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟪 Other: 5%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 44%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
#86 (2.0/3.0) | 7/15-16 | 2,400 LVhttps://t.co/qNrkHdIXY8 pic.twitter.com/9zOv7W0vET
The poll was conducted July 15-16, with 800 likely voters in each state. The margin of error in Pennsylvania was plus or minus 3.46 percentage points, and plus or minus 3.52 percentage points in Nevada and Arizona.
A quote from InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery highlights while there's no post-assassination attempt boost for Trump, it's also worth highlighting the enthusiasm gap.
"Each of these battleground states followed a similar pattern. Trump had solid leads but based on recent polling by other firms, there appeared to be no significant bump past Saturday’s attempted assassination of former President Trump. However, there existed in each state a substantial 'enthusiasm gap,'" Towery offered. "The gap in each state was: PA, Republicans 75%-Democrats 58%; NV, Republicans 83%-Democrats 63%; AZ, 83%-61%. This may be the better measure of the reaction to the attempt on Trump’s life, given that for months the number of undecided voters in most polls has been relatively low," he continued, speaking to where there may be a reaction in the polls.
Such a point about the enthusiasm gap looks to be consistent among other polls as well, at the national level and also in key states. We especially saw this in Minnesota last month, which is yet another potential swing state, despite how the North Star State has voted for a Democrat for president every year since 1972.
With both of those polls included by RealClearPolling, Trump leads overall in the top battleground states by +4.3. Although the InsiderAdvantage poll didn't include Wisconsin and Michigan this time around, Emerson College did, and Trump is up in those states as well.
Both states could be potentially the toughest ones for Trump. They both have Democratic governors, with Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer having been mentioned as a potential replacement to Biden, or perhaps for vice president, if current Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the nominee. There's key Senate races in both states, with vulnerable Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin running for reelection in Wisconsin.
Even still, RealClearPolling has Trump ahead by +3.4 in Wisconsin, and by +1.6 in Michigan. Those figures are still within the margin of error oftentimes, especially in Michigan, but it's a larger lead than Trump has had before.
Given that Biden is reportedly looking to exit the race potentially this weekend, it's rather fitting that we also have polling results between Trump and Harris. The Biden campaign has been pushing back, though, on such reports.
Per the InsiderAdvantage poll between Trump and Harris, Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 47-40 percent, in Nevada by 50-40 percent, and in Arizona by 48-42 percent. This is in line with other polls showing how Harris performs even more poorly against Trump than Biden does.
Trump also leads Harris in Georgia by 47-37 percent and in Florida by 49-39 percent.
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris Polling by Insider Advantage
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 18, 2024
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+10)
🟦 Harris: 37%
🟪 Other: 7%
—
FLORIDA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+10)
🟦 Harris: 39%
🟪 Other: 7%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+7)
🟦 Harris: 40%
🟪 Other: 8%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 50% (+10)
🟦 Harris:… pic.twitter.com/mMOzdmSuOM
Towery warned that Harris' numbers could "potentially improve," though, should she officially become the nominee. "In these ballot tests Harris performs below Biden. However, it is important to note that a vice president who is not the party nominee (or presumptive), tested against the other party’s actual nominee, may yield weaker numbers than a ballot test should both be their respective party’s candidate," he offered. "That said within the smaller demographic subsets, the declines for Harris versus that of Biden, for the most part, were generally small. That suggests that with the mantel of nominee, her numbers could potentially improve."
The Sports Handle tracker data for July 18 shows that Harris' chances of becoming president are higher than Biden's, 18.6 percent to Biden's 12.2 percent. The odds are at 73.5 percent that Trump becomes president.
"While the newly formed Trump/Vance ticket has spent the last few days rallying support at the RNC, the Democrats might be looking for a new candidate just a month away from their own convention. Following reports that Biden has become “more receptive” to calls from within his own party for him to step down as the nominee (as well as testing positive for Covid), Harris’s odds have jumped from 8.6% yesterday to 18.6% today," a spokesperson for Sports Handle said in a statement shared with Townhall. "Biden’s odds, meanwhile, fell over 7%. Trump still has a commanding lead at the moment, but odds tell us the Democrats could be on the verge of making a historic move, replacing their nominee this late in the game."
Poly Market shows there's an 87 percent chance that Biden drops out, an all-time high. There's also a new low that Biden wins the presidential election, at just 6 percent. Trump enjoys a 66 percent chance, while Harris is at 20 percent.
.@Polymarket - The odds of President Biden dropping out of the 2024 Presidential race have hit another all-time high of 87%https://t.co/X8yZJV3MqA https://t.co/HfMj9kVCKp pic.twitter.com/EyWPntfpHw
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 18, 2024
