Last Thursday's debate between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden revealed to many just how bad the president is faring, though it's also a concern we've had for some time. In addition to watching how Biden's fellow Democrats scramble to figure out where to go from here, and what the mainstream media is finally willing to report on, we're also watching the polls. The debate looks to have done Biden no favors in key battleground states where he's already been performing poorly.
On Tuesday, Cygnal released a poll showing Biden down by 4 in his home state of Pennsylvania. Highlighting coverage of their poll from Newsweek, pollster Brent Buchanan pointed out "It's pretty bad."
"If Biden loses PA, his path is narrow to none," as "55% of PA voters disapprove of Biden and the Democrats' policies. It's hard to see things improving for the President here," Buchanan added.
Trump indeed leads by +4, as he enjoys 48.3 percent of the vote among likely voters, to Biden's 44 percent, while 7.6 percent are undecided. Biden's numbers only get worse from there, as the poll also hones in on voters from mid-size counties, where 52.8 percent support Trump, 41.8 percent support Biden, and 5.4 percent are undecided. When it comes to swing voters, described as "soft Republicans, Soft Democrats, and Undecideds on the generic ballot," the numbers for Biden are scary. Trump not only enjoys 36.7 percent support, while Biden has just 29.6 percent support, but ,ore of these swing voters are undecided, 33.7 percent of them, than say they support Biden.
Among those who watched the debate, which took place as the poll was being conducted, Trump enjoys a lead of 53-41 percent.
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Trump enjoys more support from his fellow Republicans than Biden does his fellow Democrats. Ninety-one percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump, including 83 percent who say they'll "definitely" do so. Meanwhile, 85 percent of Democrats say they'll vote for Biden, including 74 percent who say they'll "definitely" do so. Trump holds onto almost all of his support from 2020, with 95 percent saying they'll vote for him again, including 87 percent who say they "definitely" will. Biden retains support from 88 percent of those voters, including 74 percent who say they'll "definitely" vote for him again.
On a full ballot with third-party candidates, Trump still leads Biden, with 42.4 percent among overall voters to Biden's 38.1 percent. With mid-size county voters, Trump's lead expands to 48 percent to Biden's 37.1 percent. Among swing voters, Trump leads Biden by 25.2 percent-19.6 percent. Once again, more of these voters are undecided--22.5 percent--than are willing to support Biden at this time. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. also even enjoys more support than Biden, with 21.2 percent of these voters saying they'll support him.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 1, 2024
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Biden: 44%
⬜ Undecided: 8%
Independents: Trump 44-29%
---
🟥 Trump: 42% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟨 West: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey: 46%
🟥 McCormick: 42%
⬜ Undecided: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥… pic.twitter.com/arDEyxMU1I
Both candidates are considered unfavorable, especially among swing voters, but Biden's unfavorable numbers are much worse:
- Among likely voters, 60.2 percent have an unfavorable rating of Biden, while just 38.5 percent have a favorable view. Among voters in those mid-size counties, his numbers are almost exactly the same. For those swing voters, though, 74.5 percent have an unfavorable view, while just 21.2 percent have a favorable view.
- Among likely voters, 53.4 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 44.8 percent have a favorable view. Among voters in mid-size counties, 50.1 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 48.7 percent have a favorable view. Among swing voters, 61.9 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 33.2 percent have a favorable view.
- Seventy-four percent of Biden's fellow Democrats and those who voted for him in 2020 have a favorable view, compared to how 84 percent of Republicans and 89 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 have a favorable view of him.
- Among debate watchers, 61 percent have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 50 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Pollster Brock McCleary, who is also a Pennsylvania native, chimed in to point out how much is at stake. "Trump holds a four-point lead over incumbent Joe Biden in both the head-to-head matchup and full presidential ballot," he said. "Trump turned the Keystone State red in 2016 but Biden was able to flip it back to blue in 2020, meaning Pennsylvania is likely determine the next President. This latest data shows momentum building for Trump with his net favorability increasing to 45 percent while Biden’s stands at just 39 percent, coupled with an even worse number – an unfavorable view among voters at 60 percent."
There's also a U.S. Senate race out of Pennsylvania, and vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. is still sticking by Biden, which Republican nominee Dave McCormick has taken notice of.
Casey's lead over McCormick is a narrow one. Among overall voters, he leads 45.8 percent to McCormick's 42.1 percent. McCormick actually leads in voters from mid-size counties, 46 percent to 42.7 percent. McCormick's biggest challenge is with swing voters, as 37.6 percent support Casey, 31.8 percent are undecided, and McCormick enjoys 30.6 percent support.
There's good news for McCormick in other questions, as a majority--in the case of voters from mid-size counties--or close to it when it comes to overall voters and swing voters believe it is "time for someone new." Respondents were also asked if they'd rather vote for a "Democrat who will support Joe Biden's policies" or a "Republican who will be a check-and-balance to Joe Biden's policies." Close to a majority of overall voters (47.5 percent) and those in mid-size counties (49.3 percent) chose the later. It's close among swing state voters. While 40.2 percent say they're "unsure," 39.5 percent selected the Republican.
"A clear takeaway from the poll is that despite nearly 20 years in elected office and his family’s political legacy in the state, Casey is facing a difficult path to reelection. Because he’s been there much longer, Casey still has name ID and favorability advantages over McCormick. However, as an incumbent with favorability in the mid-40s and unfavorability only a few points behind, Casey has significant challenges ahead," the poll also noted.
The pollsters also express a hopeful outlook for Republicans overall in Pennsylvania. "The political environment in Pennsylvania is encouraging for Republicans, even as the Democrat campaign machine has poured millions into the commonwealth trying to bolster Senator Casey’s lackluster image," said Buchanan. "Our data shows Dave McCormick’s race to unseat Casey is more competitive than many think. Casey has 20 years in office, high name ID, and comes from a political legacy family – yet despite those advantages, he’s managed to get his campaign in a precarious position. This is due to factors like a large majority of voters believing the nation is on the wrong track, swing voters placing increased importance on inflation and the economy, and more than half of voters saying they believe Casey is a partisan. This has created favorable conditions for the McCormick campaign as well as Republican races across the commonwealth."
One of the poll's top takeaway noted how "The political environment in Pennsylvania is encouraging for Republicans: the generic ballot is R+2, a large majority of voters believe that nation is on the wrong track (69%), and among those most interested in the election, Republicans hold a 7-point advantage."
For those respondents who were contacted after the debate, a plurality of each voting group said they watched the entire debate. Close to a majority, at 46.5 percent of those in mid-size counties, watched it. Such respondents were asked open ended questions about how they felt. The prevailing sentiment was that they had a "generally negative" view about Biden, with 21.8 percent of overall voters and 31.1 percent of voters in mid-size counties saying so.
As a poll takeaway noted, "66% of voters watched all or at least some of Thursday’s debate. A sentiment analysis on open-ended responses showed 22% had generally negative things to say about Biden compared to only 13% saying similarly negative things about Trump. 18% had bad things to say about both candidates." There's a note that the "Sample of debate watchers only came from Friday responses; that sample was collected in a way to mirror the likely voter universe answering Thursday."
And there's some key takeaways to do with persuadable voters as well:
Among persuadable voters in the presidential race (Probably Trump, Probably Biden, orUndecided on ballot) who watched the debate or followed it afterwards, Trump came outlooking much better than Biden.
• “Biden is an embarrassment for our country. He is frail and senseless. Even though Trump has his faults, he is of sound mind, has a strong will, is very intelligent, and makes decisions that are well thought out.” – Female, 30-44, probably Trump voter
•“Joe Biden should step down. He is an embarrassment to the office” – Male, 45-54, probably Trump voter
•“We need a young, passionate progressive person- I felt embarrassed and doomed” –Male, 45-54, probably Biden voter
•“Biden should step down now. Who is running our country?” – Female, 65+, probablyTrump voter
•“Joe Biden should step aside due to age” – Female, 30-44, probably Biden voter
•“Biden is to [sic] old to run again” – Female, 55-64, undecided voter
The poll was conducted June 27-28, with 800 likely general election voters in Pennsylvania and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.45 percentage points. The poll included 135 voters from mid-size voters and 150 swing voters.
Buchanan also added a note on polls in his Wednesday morning takes, specifically as it has to do with "Honestly not much changed" when it comes to a Reuters poll highlighting how "One in three Democrats think Biden should quit the race."
"Pre-debate many Democrats wanted a different nominee. Same for a segment of Republicans. That's why there are so many 'double haters' in the electorate. The only reason a poll like this gets legs now is because it fits the media narrative of the freakout over Biden," Buchanan noted, tying in that "media narrative," the polls, and the reality before us.
