The November election continues to look hopeful for Republicans, especially after these forecast changes from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. The map shows 251 electoral votes for Republicans, 241 for Democrats, and 46 toss up votes.
The Center for Politics, however, notes that they "don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors."
🚨 CRYSTAL BALL RATING CHANGES
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 13, 2024
President
• Georgia: Toss-up ➡️ Leans R
• Pennsylvania: Leans D ➡️ Toss up
• ME-2: Leans R ➡️ Likely R
• Alaska, Iowa, Ohio: Likely R ➡️ Safe R
PA Senate: Likely D ➡️ Leans Dhttps://t.co/t40AoW0RSq pic.twitter.com/q7pq1GnCKo
It's not just former and potentially future President Donald Trump who benefits from such changes. While six of the seven race changes apply to the presidential race, there's also a race change in the U.S. Senate race for Pennsylvania. Vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. is facing Republican Dave McCormick, with Casey only having a slight edge now, in a "Leans Democratic" Race.
Georgia has been moved from a "Toss-Up" to a "Leans Republican" state, which makes sense, given that Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden by +4.8 there, per RealClearPolling. Pennsylvania for the presidential race is now a "Toss-Up," with Trump leading Biden there by +2.3. This is particularly embarrassing for Biden, given it's his home state. Maine awards its electoral votes by congressional districts, and the 2nd Congressional District there looks to be "Likely Republican." There's also three states that have moved into the "Safe Republican" category for Trump, the best rating there can be for him. That being said, it seems that the three states--Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio--should have already been in that category.
Even with such a note about a lack of "a clear favorite," the map that's currently out there isn't as favorable to Trump as it could be.
Texas is regarded as "Likely Republican," as is Florida, though they still count towards the 251 electoral votes for Trump at least. One might expect them to be "Safe Republican," given how Texas is still such a Republican state that has voted for the Republican nominee every election since 1980 and Florida has become even more Republican, especially with the successes of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The "Toss-Up" races are not included as favoring either Trump or Biden, and so that Arizona and Nevada have such a rating is even more significant. Arizona is one of Trump's best battleground states, as he has a lead of +4.4 there, and Nevada is tied with North Carolina for his best, with that lead of +5.3. If those two states were even moved to just "Lean Republican," there would be 17 more electoral votes for Trump.
That's actually addressed when the write-up explains why Georgia is being moved but Arizona and Nevada are not.
"One could argue that all three of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia could or should be Leans Republican. We think that’s premature, particularly Nevada, where polls often overstate Republicans and Democrats have a proven ground game operation," the write-up notes. "It’s splitting hairs to some degree, but Georgia was probably the most surprising of Biden’s 2020 victories, and it may be a little bit more Republican at its core than the other two are: Democrats hold all of the Senate seats from these three states, but Democrats were shut out in statewide executive office elections in both 2018 and 2022 in Georgia, which was not the case in Arizona and Nevada."
How is Texas not “Safe R” lmao?
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) June 14, 2024
Arizona and Nevada toss ups?????Show me a single poll, even a Dem Pollster, that had Biden within even the margin of error in either of those two states in the last 6 months
— Findro89 (@findro_89) June 13, 2024
That Wisconsin is a "Toss-Up" does make sense, though Michigan should perhaps be in that category too. If it was, that would mean 15 less electoral votes for Biden. Then again, the president had been working hard to earn votes from the anti-Israel part of the base by increasingly turning his back on our ally in the Middle East after the October 7 terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas.
"The bottom line here is that we still expect Michigan to be a bit bluer than the other pieces of the so-called 'Blue Wall,' Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Hence the difference in ratings (more on the importance of these states momentarily)," the write-up also notes," with there sure enough also being a mention of the Arab-population in Michigan.
The write-up from the Center for Politics speaks further to there not being a favorite to win yet:
— Relatedly, it’s still too early to be using polls to make dramatic claims about how states will vote. Polls are often described as a “snapshot in time,” and while they tend to be used as a prospective measure (projecting forward to the election), they actually are retrospective instruments, as they measure attitudes that existed whenever the polls were fielded. To be clear, most of the voting public is immovable, but the key voters that will decide the election are movable, and they may shift in and out of voting for one of the major party nominees, a third party option, or skipping the vote altogether. So there’s some volatility here. Our general assumption is that Biden is going to perform at least a little better in November than polls are showing now, much like Donald Trump generally performed better in November of both of his election years than what late spring polling suggested. Biden probably has a little bit more base consolidation to do than Trump—we may actually be seeing some of that in the wake of Trump’s conviction on business record falsification charges in New York a couple of weeks ago. To be clear, that doesn’t make Biden a favorite in our eyes—again, we just don’t see a favorite.
It's definitely curious that it's Biden who "probably has a little bit more base consolidation to do than Trump," with the write-up citing The New York Times showing Biden with a "small shift" after the May 30 conviction for Trump, but, as we covered last week, includes all sorts of caveats.
Polling has shown that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic to vote for their candidate than Biden supporters are to vote for theirs, especially in specific states. Further, most voters overall say Trump's conviction won't be a factor, though Republicans actually see it as a reason to rally around Trump and many think it will actually help the presumptive nominee's chances.
The write-up does also point some serious concerns for Biden:
— ...Trump has been polling better than he typically polled in both 2016 and 2020, and that has been the case for many months. Biden’s approval rating is in a dangerous zone—the high 30s—and he has been in that weak place consistently since November, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Biden is not going to be at net-positive approval by Election Day—fortunately for him, he does not need to be, but one would probably expect to see some level of improvement if he is going to win reelection. The danger for Biden is that voters may just be done with him: There is some nostalgia in polls for the pre-2020, pre-Covid, and pre-inflation period that coincided with Trump’s presidency....
With original emphasis, the write-up also notes that "If Trump wins any of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, he very likely will win the election."
Not only is the presidential race considered a "Toss-Up," but the write-up claims that it still will be even after the June 27 debate, July 11 sentencing for Trump, RNC on July 15, and DNC on August 19.
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