It may still be early--former and potentially future President Donald was just found "guilty" in a sham trial six days ago--but as polls conducted around the time of the verdict or afterwards continue to come out, it doesn't look like President Joe Biden is where he needs to be. If the conviction really mattered, and this isn't to say it won't when it matters, Biden's support would likely go up considerably, while Trump's would drop considerably. That isn't necessarily the case, though.
On Wednesday, the latest edition of The Economist/YouGov poll was released, showing Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent each. In last week's poll, Trump led Biden with 41-40 percent, so each of them saw a small bump, even the candidate who Democrats are obsessed with labeling as a "convicted felon." Independents also prefer Trump over Biden, 39-29 percent, and Biden only enjoys a slight edge in hanging onto support from fellow Democrats in contrast to Trump's support from fellow Republicans, at 89 percent and 88 percent, respectively.
NEW: Economist/YouGov Poll, June 2-4
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) June 5, 2024
% of registered voters who plan to vote for...
Trump: 42%
Biden: 42%
May 25-28 poll:
Trump 41%
Biden 40%https://t.co/8IYZzzU1ZW pic.twitter.com/qFYizMP1Uv
These polls are released every week, and they have shown a slight lead by Trump, or Trump and Biden tied.
That Biden and Trump are tied is not the only issue for the incumbent president desperately running for reelection. Trump supporters are also far more eager about voting for their candidate than Biden supporters are. While 66 percent of Trump supporters say they're "extremely enthusiastic" (47 percent) or "very enthusiastic" (19 percent), just 53 percent of his supporters said they were "extremely enthusiastic" (36 percent) or "very enthusiastic."
Further, while just 4 percent of Trump supporters say they're "not at all enthusiastic" to vote for him, 11 percent said the same about Biden.
NEW: Economist/YouGov, June 2-4
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) June 5, 2024
% who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in November
Biden supporters: 53%
Trump supporters: 66%https://t.co/2x02Jc4O5Z pic.twitter.com/uXbQsR4I9Q
The enthusiasm numbers looked to have dropped for both Trump and Biden from the last poll, but it was a matter of a margin of error for Trump--from 68 percent--as opposed to a steeper decline for Biden, who had 59 percent of his supporters saying they were "extremely enthusiastic" (38 percent) or "very enthusiastic" (21 percent).
Biden's approval numbers and other similar findings continue to look bad for the president as well. Sixty-percent of voters believe that the country is headed "off in the wrong direction," though 50 percent of Biden's supporters believe they're "generally headed in the right direction." Fifty-eight percent of registered voters also disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president, with 47 percent saying they do so "strongly."
When it comes to the most important issues, Biden doesn't fare well there, either. Nearly a quarter of voters, at 24 percent, say "inflation/prices" is their most important issue, while coming in at a distant second is "immigration," at 12 percent. Those happen to be Biden's worst issues, as 60 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation/prices while just 31 percent approve, and 59 percent disapprove of his handling of immigration while just 31 percent approve as well.
The poll delved even further into the economy as well, bringing even more still bad news for Biden. Over a majority of voters, at 53 percent, believe the economy is "getting worse," and a plurality of voters, at 43 percent, say they're "worse off financially" from a year ago. Just 15 percent say they're "better off." Even Biden supporters are not likely to say they're "better off" from a year ago, with just 27 percent saying so, and a plurality of such respondents even believe the economy is "getting better," with 47 percent believing so.
Americans are hurting on the economy, and the Democratically-allied media doesn't seem to care. As a particular example, Axios came under fire for a post claiming "the economy is in good shape."
On immigration, it's no wonder that this week, just about five months exactly before Election Day, Biden finally announced he was taking executive action on immigration to do something about the crisis at the southern border, though it's questionable if this will give him any kind of a boost. Many of Biden's fellow Democrats oppose it for being supposedly too anti-immigrant, and Republicans see it for being too little too late, especially since Biden and most Congressional Democrats oppose HR 2, the Secure the Border Act, which the House passed over a year ago.
The poll also delved further into the Trump "trial," and this time respondents look to be willing to scrutinize the process a lot more than they did in say the CBS News poll, which we covered on Monday.
A plurality of voters, at 43 percent, believe Trump is treated "more harshly than other people" by the criminal justice system, though 81 percent of voters believe he should be treated "equally to other people," with even 78 percent of Biden supporters saying so. In this poll, voters are more evenly split as to if Trump received "a fair trial in New York," with 47 percent saying he did not, and 46 percent saying he did.
Majorities of voters or close to majorities still do approve of the verdict (51-42 percent), believe the trial was conducted fairly (49-42 percent) and believe DA Alvin Bragg was right to bring the hush money charges (48-41 percent). It does not appear that respondents were told that Bragg charged Trump with felonies in the case when he could have brought the charges as misdemeanors, was using an untested legal theory, and after the statute of limitations had expired. Prosecutors had also previously declined to bring charges.
And yet while such findings may not be the best news for Trump, he's still tied with Biden, which is certainly bad news for the incumbent. Ninety-two percent of voters also say they're not reconsidering their vote after such a verdict, perhaps the biggest number we've seen on this question. A plurality of voters, at 25 percent, also believe it will have "no effect" on Trump's changes.
While a plurality of Biden supporters, at 33 percent, believe Trump's conviction will have a "somewhat negative" effect on his chances, a plurality of Trump supporters, at 34 percent, believe it will have a "very positive" effect. That shows us not only that partisans see the trial outcome for how they want to, but also that Trump's supporters may be more willing to use this as an excuse to rally behind Trump. It also goes back to that enthusiasm factor mentioned above.
The poll was conducted June 2-4, with 1,766 respondents including 1,566 registered voters for whom there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
This poll from The Economist/YouGov does not look to be an outlier. As we covered in that same Monday's VIP piece about polls, Trump and Biden are also tied at 41 percent each in the I&I/TIPP poll, which is actually an improvement for Trump, since Biden enjoyed 42 percent to Trump's 40 percent last month.
🇺🇲 National Poll: TIPP/I&I
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 5, 2024
🟥 Trump: 41% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 41% [-1]
—
🟥 Trump: 38% [=]
🟦 Biden: 38% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10% [-2]
🟩 Stein: 2% [+1]
🟨 West: 1% [=]
[+/- change vs April 1-4]
538: #118 (1.8/3.0) | 1,675 RV | 5/29-31https://t.co/rOXMlLbO8H pic.twitter.com/4MdKODUpea
And, even better than a tie is that Trump is leading Biden by 44-43 percent in the new Morning Consult poll among 10,404 registered voters. They also frequently put out polls, which have shown it to be something of a close and competitive race.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @MorningConsult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 5, 2024
🟥 Trump: 44% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 43%
—
May 31: Biden +1
May 28: Trump +2
—
#116 (1.8/3.0) | 10,404 RV | 5/31-6/2https://t.co/RI5a7YHg36 pic.twitter.com/ZA5hxoen13
