Since former and potentially future President Donald Trump was found "guilty" over a week ago now on 34 felony charges, polling about the effect such a conviction will have, if any, has been trickling in. The short answer is that while President Joe Biden has received a small bump, it's likely not enough. Further, the conviction doesn't look to have had much of an effect, at least not yet and with particular polls.
On Sunday, CBS News/YouGov released a poll highlighting how competitive the race remains. "Trump and Biden neck and neck nationally and in battlegrounds," read the headline. At the national level, among likely voters and leaners, Trump leads Biden 50-49 percent, while those numbers are flipped when it comes to the battleground states, and Biden leads 50-49 percent. RealClearPolling still has Trump leading overall at the national level and in the battleground states.
The poll also shows that while Biden has a slight edge in support from Democrats (87 percent) over Trump's support from Republicans (86 percent) in the battleground states among registered voters, Trump has a higher advantage at the national level with his fellow Republicans (90 percent) compared to Biden's support with his fellow Democrats (78 percent).
Those who say they're choosing Trump are also more likely to stay they're feeling "very strong" about their choice and have decided, (78 percent) compared to those who say so about Biden (69 percent).
As Townhall has been covered, a major takeaway from the poll is that close to two-thirds of voters support mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Sixty-two percent of say they would favor "the U.S. government starting a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally."
The poll also showed that while Biden's executive order on immigration--which has been slammed as being too little, too late--enjoys support, that still isn't enough to give him an edge on the issue.
Close to a majority, at 49 percent, believe that Biden's policies would "increase crossings" of illegal immigrants, while just 20 percent said his policies would "decrease crossings." Meanwhile, 70 percent of voters believe that Trump's policies would "decrease crossings."
There's broad support for Biden’s recent executive order dealing with the border, including from most Republicans, but voters still tend to think migrant crossings will go down more under Trump. https://t.co/VttlZsVzLj pic.twitter.com/GawyHIuEDJ
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 9, 2024
The poll's write-up highlights how this is a non-partisan issue that helps Trump:
There's broad support for Mr. Biden's recent executive order dealing with the border, including from most Republicans, but despite that, voters who place a high priority on the border are backing Trump by a large margin.
Voters still tend to think migrant crossings will go down more under Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump has talked about the actions he would take toward immigration if elected to a second term, including deportation efforts.
A nearly six in 10 majority of voters say they would favor, in principle, a new government program to deport all undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.
(That isn't purely partisan, it includes a third of Democrats. It rises to nine in 10 Republicans.)
Further, other polls show that Trump has a massive lead on who voters trust more to handle immigration, which is often a top of mind issue.
There was more bad news for Biden, though. "Among all the factors on voters' minds this election, former President Donald Trump's guilty verdict pales in comparison to issues like the economy, inflation, and the border — all items on which Trump maintains advantages. As such, the verdict has not dramatically reshaped the race," the write-up begins by mentioning.
When it comes to the economy, a plurality , at 34 percent, believe the economy is "very bad." A majority expect that the economy will be at least "slowing, but not in recession" (27 percent), or "in recession" (24 percent). Further, 81 percent of likely voters say they consider the economy to be a "major factor" in their vote, while 75 percent say the same about inflation, making those the most crucial issues.
A majority says Trump’s conviction is not a factor in their vote decision — in fact, the trial ranks much lower as a factor, when considered on its own, than every other issue tested. https://t.co/VttlZsVzLj pic.twitter.com/vQKHvnjsx0
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 9, 2024
"Views of the national economy are more negative today than they were in March, and voters' financial concerns continue to lead to more Trump support," the poll's write-up mentions. "Trump is up more than 2 to 1 among those who say higher prices have been a hardship. And Trump leads Mr. Biden big among those who say the economy is a major factor in their vote."
Thirty-five percent say prices have been a "financial hardship" for them. Close to a majority, at 48 percent, say they'd be "financially worse off" under Biden's policies if he was reelected. A plurality, however, at 42 percent, believe they'd be "financially better off" under Trump's policies if he was reelected. Just 16 percent say the same about if Biden were to be reelected.
What's really bad for Biden is something that will likely remain an issue no matter how hard his handlers try. The 81-year-old president isn't getting any younger, and voters notice and are considered with signs of his cognitive decline.
Noteworthy findings about his age, health and leadership style include:
- 68 percent say "effective" is not a word that describes Biden, and 62 percent say "focused" is not a word that describes him, while 60 percent also say "competent" doesn't describe him either.
- Even worse, 72 percent say "tough" doesn't describe Biden, and 74 percent don't believe "energetic" describes him. These are also the worst characteristics among Biden's fellow Democrats, as 45 percent say tough does not describe him, and 46 percent say energetic does not.
- Trump's numbers in these categories are much better, especially as 66 percent say "tough" describes him and 61 percent say "energetic" does.
- A major talking point among Biden surrogates is that he fights for people, but 58 percent say he does not "fight for people like you." Trump fares slightly better, as 54 percent say they believe he does not.
- While 51 percent believe Biden has a vision to lead the country, 67 percent believe Trump does.
- When asked if only one, both, or neither of the candidate "has the cognitive and mental health to serve as president," a plurality, at 42 percent, say "only Donald Trump" does.
Trump outpaces Biden on a range of qualities.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 9, 2024
Biden does better on likability but many who don’t like the way Trump handles himself personally are voting for him anyway. pic.twitter.com/Ye5nCRRnDh
There's other factors where that comes into play, as the write-up highlights:
Moreover, we see this dynamic again in how people frame their vote decision, along the lines of whether this election is a referendum or a choice.
When people say this election is just about their view on Trump, most vote for Mr. Biden.
However, when people instead see this race as a judgment just on Mr. Biden, they vote for Trump.
And when they're framing it as a comparison between the two, slightly more are voting for Trump than Mr. Biden.
Here's why that direct comparison right now favors Trump:
Trump outpaces Mr. Biden on a range of qualities like being seen as effective, tough, energetic and — more narrowly — competent. Also, more think Trump has a vision of where he wants to lead the country.
Mr. Biden does better on personal likability and being viewed as compassionate. But that likability gap does not match vote preferences, because a lot of people who dislike Trump personally are voting for Trump anyway.
Fifty-percent of likely voters say Trump's conviction is "not a factor" in their vote. Where the verdict may play a role is how it affects why Biden supporters say they're voting for the deeply unpopular incumbent president, and it's not because they're such huge fans. As the write-up mentions on that note:
But what we do see is a few more Joe Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump. His vote has become increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment, more so than affinity for Mr. Biden himself. Today, most of Mr. Biden's voters say their main rationale is opposing Trump, and that's up from March.
Whether that dynamic is enough to sustain Mr. Biden looms as one of the central questions of this campaign — a contest that today is essentially tied in likely voter preference, both nationally and across the collective battleground states.
...
Most of Mr. Biden's voters now say their main rationale is to oppose Trump, not because they like Mr. Biden — an increase in this rationale since March.
(Mr. Biden capitalized on this kind of sentiment in 2020 too, as substantial numbers expressed it in many battleground states that year.)
A majority of those who say they're supporting Biden, at 54 percent, say they're doing so "mainly to oppose Donald Trump."
What we do see is a few more Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 9, 2024
His vote has become increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment.
54% of Biden's voters say their main rationale is opposing Trump, up from March. https://t.co/VttlZsVzLj pic.twitter.com/HgGAObrvBw
During CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Anthony Salvanto, executive director of elections and surveys, discussed how "we do see a little bit of activation there, especially among the Democratic base, of voters for Joe Biden, who are now more motivated by opposition to Donald Trump." He also mentioned how "we have also seen folks among the Democratic base a little bit more motivated to turn out, kind of erasing some of that expressed turnout advantage that the Republicans had had in the battleground states and among a couple of key demographic groups, independent, et cetera, where Biden gets a little bit of traction there."
The poll was conducted June 5-7 with 2,063 adults in the U.S. and an oversample of those in key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada,North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points overall, and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points among registered voters.
The new @CBSNewsPoll spotlights the race to define what — or who — the campaign is about: When people say this election is just about their view on Trump, most vote for Biden. When people instead see this race as a judgment just on Biden, they vote for Trump. @SalvantoCBS… pic.twitter.com/zFW3l6PFkC
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 9, 2024
