It's worth repeating how the 2024 election is a close and competitive one, with the race likely coming down to a handful of voters in key swing states. There's some true "Toss-Ups" states up for grabs, making this likely an overall true "Toss-Up" race. It's also worth watching who Independents vote for, as they're an increasingly larger part of the electorate. They voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, but just as plenty of other groups have done, they're souring on the deeply unpopular incumbent president. Will they go for former and potentially future President Donald Trump this time? It's certainly possible, especially given results from previous polls. But, the race still remains a close one.
On Monday, the results for the Harvard CAPS-Harris May poll were released, where among registered voters, Trump leads Biden by +6, 49-43 percent, while 8 percent are unsure. Among first choice and leaners, Trump leads by +5, 53-47 percent. In both matchups, Trump's lead with Independents is in the double digits, at 47-36 percent among registered voters and and 56-44 percent among first choice and leaners.
It's also noteworthy that Trump enjoys more support among his fellow Republicans (93 percent) than Biden does among his fellow Democrats (86 percent) when it comes to registered voters and first choice and leaners, where Trump enjoys 95 percent support from Republicans and Biden's support is at 91 percent.
As the Interactive Polls X account highlighted, Trump has actually improved from previous polls.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Among independents
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 56% (+12)
🟦 Biden 44%
.
🟥 Trump 44% (+10)
🟦 Biden 34%
🟨 RFK Jr 22%
Harvard/Harris | May 15-16 | RVs https://t.co/qQC4qvYAOj pic.twitter.com/e5YlJnlbHW
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden 43% [=]
—
With leans
🟥 Trump 53% [+1]
🟦 Biden 47% [-1]
Was Trump +2 in March
—
🟥 Trump 45% [=]
🟦 Biden 40% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr. 14% [=]
—
[+/- change vs April]
—
Job approval
Presiden Biden: 45-54 (-9)
Trump recalled:… pic.twitter.com/ue1tQUfDHY
In a press release for the poll, Mark Penn is quoted as weighing in on the numbers here. "Americans always want to hear from the candidates directly and make up their own minds," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The race is still open, which reinforces why the candidates should be going after the undecided independents, rather than their own bases."
The press release segues into discussing the role that the debates could play, and what voters want to see from those debates:
MOST VOTERS WANT PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES
- 69% of voters say they have made up their minds on who they will vote for; 44% of Independents, 30% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans are still weighing the choices.
- 79% of voters want Biden and Trump to debate each other.
- 71% think the debates should include third-party or independent candidates that clear a viable threshold, such as RFK, Jr.
- 54% think debate microphones should automatically cut off when a speaker's time elapses (Democrats and Independents: 60% each; Republicans: 44%).
Independents once more play a potentially significant role, given that so many of them "are still weighing the choices." That only 22 percent of Republicans say they are, while 30 percent of Democrats do is another likely benefit for Trump when it comes to holding onto his base.
The findings on presidential debates come as Biden last week challenged Trump to a debate, with Trump agreeing right away. The first debate has been scheduled for June 27, with CNN hosting.
Not only do 79 percent of voters want Trump and Biden to debate, but 63 percent believe the debates will "provide valuable information to voters on who to pick in 2024."
Although a small majority of voters look to be in agreement with the Biden camp's condition that candidates' mics be automatically cut when their time has elapsed, many more disagree with Biden's insistence that third-party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., be kept out of the debates. Biden has been criticized for upending the debate norms and having an air of unfairness towards Trump.
By cutting RFK Jr. out, the Biden campaign is going against 71 percent of overall voters, 66 percent of his fellow Democrats, 78 percent of Independents/Others, 74 percent of Trump voters for 24, and 67 percent of those voters who say they're going for Biden.
Another area of the poll addresses how much of a role Trump's running mate might play in the race. Trump has yet to name this person, but has said he'll do so shortly before the Republican National Convention, which is taking place in Milwaukee from July 15-July 18.
Among the seven possible running mates mentioned, a majority of voters say Trump picking that person will have "no effect." However, were Trump to pick Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who also ran in the Republican presidential primary but dropped out in November and endorsed Trump in January, 25 percent of voters say they'd be "more likely" to vote for Trump.
This includes 23 percent of Democrats, 29 percent of fellow Republicans, 24 percent of Independents, 25 percent of white voters, 25 percent of black voters, and 33 percent of Latino voters.
Except for Trump and Scott's fellow Republicans, these are the highest numbers among those demographics who then say they'd be "more likely" to vote for Trump. Vivek Ramaswamy, another former primary opponent, earns the highest support among fellow Republicans, as 32 percent of Republicans would be "more likely" to vote for Trump, but just 16 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of Independents say so.
But Harvard CAPS Harris Poll didn’t test @GovernorVa as possible VP running mate for @realDonaldTrump. https://t.co/EzAdHtTIxc
— Jeff E. Schapiro (@RTDSchapiro) May 21, 2024
Biden is almost certainly stuck with Vice President Kamala Harris, which is unfortunate, since her net approval rating of -8, with 50 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of her is almost as bad as Biden's -10, with 53 percent having an unfavorable view. Scott has one of the best net approval ratings of +10, with 35 percent having a favorable view and 25 percent having an unfavorable view.
Scott himself has teased potentially being Trump's running mate, as he did last week when discussing the recently announced debates, including a vice presidential debate for July.
Virginia journalist Jeff E. Schapiro noted that Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) wasn't tested, which is indeed an odd omission. As Guy addressed last week, the Trump campaign believes Virginia might even be in play for the presidential election this time around. Youngkin certainly thinks so.
It's not just the sheer numbers in those matchups that are bad for Biden. His overall approval rating is at 44 percent, a pretty steady number. When it comes to his approval rating on inflation, which 41 percent of voters say is the most important to them personally, Biden is not looking too good here. With an approval rating of 41 percent on the issue, it's one of his worst. He also fares badly on another top issue of immigration, with a 40 percent approval rating there. Biden's worst issue is the Israel-Hamas conflict, with Biden having a 36 percent approval rating.
In contrast, 55 percent of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, which was the same number as when respondents were asked for the April poll.
While it may be that "the race is still open," that may not be the case for much longer if Biden doesn't get his numbers up. A lot of these numbers have been holding steady for Biden, but they're not where an unpopular incumbent president running for reelection wants to be.
The poll was conducted May 15-16 with 1,600 registered voters. With this poll's +6 lead for Trump included in RealClearPolling's average of the race overall, the presumptive nominee has a +1.1 lead.
