When it comes to the key battleground states, Pennsylvania might be a tricky one for former and potentially future President Donald Trump to win. Or at least it used to be. It's President Joe Biden's home state, after all, and he won it in 2020, flipping it back after Trump won in 2016. However, Trump has since increased his lead in the crucial state. Earlier on Wednesday, Matt covered how Pennsylvania is one of the key "old blue wall" states, along with Michigan and Wisconsin. It's potentially a must-win for either candidate, and it would be especially embarrassing for Biden to lose Pennsylvania this time, especially if it led to him losing the election overall.
On Tuesday, AARP Pennsylvania released a poll highlighting how "Voters 50+ Could Tip the Scales in 2024." This isn't just regarding the presidential race, but also the control of the U.S. Senate.
The poll was also shared in a MAGA Inc. PAC email and on its X account.
Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden among all Pennsylvania voters as well as those 50 and older, according to a new AARP poll.https://t.co/fcTrvJ8G9p
— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) May 8, 2024
Whether there are multiple candidates involved or not, Trump has a healthy lead among likely voters, at 46-41 percent with the full ballot, and 49-45 percent against Biden between just the two of them. Among those likely voters over 50, Trump leads 52-42 percent. Biden does lead 48-45 percent among those voters 18-49, though.
As a bullet point notes, something we have been pointing out all along with numerous polls, "Trump is ahead in large part due to more consolidated support from Republicans than Biden is getting from Democrats, while Trump also has a slight edge with Independents." When it comes to the breakdown, Trump has 90 percent support from Republicans, while Biden has 84 percent support from Democrats. Trump leads with Independents, 47-37 percent over Biden.
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BREAKING: This Pennsylvania AARP poll is something else.
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) May 7, 2024
Trump is winning Boomers, outright. Trump is winning the bulk of Gen X'ers by 16 points. And, winning everybody else by a point.
Wow. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/sH2LwlSAQU
The poll also highlights how "President Biden's image (-23) and job approval (-26) are both substantially underwater with PA voters." His image rating is -34 among voters 18-49 and -14 among voters over 50, while his approval rating is -35 among voters 18-49 and -18 among voters over 50. That's especially a problem given that Trump has a -8 image rating and a +4 approval rating. Among voters 18-49, his image rating is -18, while it's even with voters over 50. His approval rating among voters 18-49 is -6, but it's +12 among voters over 50.
Another problem for Biden is that 73 percent feel the country is going in the "wrong direction." Sixty-eight percent of voters over 50 say so.
When it comes to the issues, "immigration and border security" is the top concern for voters over 50, with 23 percent saying it's their first choice for the most important issue, and 12 percent saying it's the next most important. "Inflation and rising prices" was next, with 13 percent saying it was their most important issue, although the 14 percent who said it's their next most important made it to the most important issue to be selected as the second choice.
In this poll, "abortion and reproductive issues" are actually the third top issue for being in the top two, while "the economy and jobs" comes in fourth. The poll does note that a "majority place at least one of three 'personal economic issues' in their top pair of issues to determine their vote," with 56 percent selecting inflation, economy/jobs, and Social Security as one of their top two issues.
Abortion might be such a top issue overall because as one of the bullet points notes, "Democratic Voters 50+ prioritize abortion, threats to democracy, and Social Security, while GOP Voters 50+ prioritize immigration, and both GOP and Independent Voters 50+ rate inflation and jobs higher."
There's good news for Trump and Republicans beyond how Trump typically has a significant lead – by double digits – on top issues such as immigration and economic ones. When it comes to persuadable voters over 50, they are described as "very focused on personal financial issues, less focused on cultural issues like immigration and abortion, and even more likely to vote for a candidate for Senate supporting caregiver policies."
With the poll focusing significantly on voters over 50, whom the poll's press release says "will be key in determining who wins in November," there's also a look at how 79 percent say Social Security is an important issue, with 73 percent saying so about Medicare, 68 percent saying so about "Policies to help seniors live independently at home as they age" as well as the cost of utilities.
"This voting bloc makes up an outsized portion of the electorate: in the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55% of all Pennsylvania voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 62% of the state’s voters. Eighty-five percent of voters ages 50+ say they are 'extremely motivated' to vote in this election," the press release also notes.
The poll also looks to the Senate race between vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., and Republican Dave McCormick. Casey leads 48-44 percent over McCormick, which is not an insurmountable lead, especially with the election being close to six months away. With voters over 50, McCormick actually is slightly ahead, 48-47 percent, though Casey leads McCormick among voters 18-49 by 49-40 percent.
"Pennsylvania voters over age 50 are a critical voting bloc that all candidates are competing for in this election," Bill Johnston Walsh, State Director, AARP Pennsylvania, is quoted in the press release as saying. "Pennsylvanians of all political stripes want leaders to protect Social Security and provide support for family caregivers. If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Pennsylvanians ages 50-plus."
As the poll noted about methodology:
The firms interviewed 1,398 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was done between April 24-30, 2024. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web. The margin of sampling error for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.
With this poll included by RealClearPolling, specifically the 49-45 percent lead that Trump has over Biden, he now has a lead of +1.8 over the current president.
