The state in question is New York -- and the short answer is no, New York is not in play. But. Siena is a reputable poll in the Empire State. It correctly detected Republican Lee Zeldin closing the gap late against Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2022 cycle. Zeldin ended up coming within single digits of Hochul, performing strongly enough in key areas to help boost other Republicans to key victories. The pollster is out with fresh numbers showing Joe Biden comfortably ahead of Donald Trump among New York voters in a hypothetical rematch, but not nearly as comfortably as one might expect in one of the bluest states in the country. Back in 2020, Siena's September poll gave Biden a whopping 32-point lead over Trump, overestimating the actual margin (Biden +23) by nine points.
Less than nine months out from the upcoming general election, Siena's data points to a substantially tighter contest statewide. A few eye-openers here:
(Siena poll - NY) do you plan on voting for Biden/Trump?
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) February 20, 2024
Overall: 48/36
Dem: 75/15
GOP: 11/76
Indie: 31/43
Men: 40/47
Women: 54/29
Union HH: 49/33
Non-Union: 47/39
NYC: 57/30
Suburbs: 39/39
Upstate: 45/42
Jewish: 44/53
Catholic: 42/39
Protestant: 47/41
Other: 58/24
Trump landed around 38 percent in New York last time out, so 36 percent isn't too far-fetched of a vote share, but Biden is way below his 2020 vote share (61 percent) in this survey. There's a political eternity still to go before November, and it's very plausible that left-leaning voters will eventually "come home" to their party's nominee, even if they're disenchanted right now. I'd take the 'over' in a bet about Biden's final victory margin in New York. Republicans also just experienced a striking under-performance in a Long Island special Congressional election, albeit within a very different off-year electorate. That said, independents splitting for Trump by double digits is noteworthy, as remotely similar breakdowns among unaffiliated voters in more competitive states could prove highly consequential. Jewish voters in New York leaning Trump is also notable, even if the subsample is small and distorted. For all of the Democrats' concerns about pro-Hamas voters in Michigan, resulting in outrageous and embarrassing spectacles like this, other constituents are clearly watching the president's actions with concern:
Donald Trump is currently beating President Biden by nine points among Jewish voters in New York, 53 percent to 44 percent, according to a new poll from Siena College. The results are pretty remarkable considering that Jewish voters typically vote overwhelmingly Democratic, particularly in New York, and Trump has not been historically popular among the demographic. The poll does not have enough detail on the group to draw definitive conclusions, but it comes at a time when Jews have witnessed the explosion of antisemitism on the left following the October 7 attacks, and when Biden has been increasingly hostile toward Israel’s efforts to use force to defend itself. Biden’s turn against Israel and unwillingness to combat antisemitism on his side has been accompanied by reports suggesting that Democratic operatives are concerned that Muslim voters staying home could cost him Michigan. But little focus has been put on what happens to his standing if he abandons Israel in pursuit of Muslim votes.
Philip Klein notes that Jewish voters tend to be concentrated in states that aren't expected to be close, but their choices in November could sway important down-ballot races. He also points out that "there are proportionately more Jews in the swing state of Pennsylvania (3.3 percent) than there are Muslims in Michigan (about 2.4 percent)." It's worth keeping an eye on. Suffice it to say, if Biden even comes close to losing the Jewish vote to Trump this fall -- or if he's falling well short of his previous vote share level in a place like New York -- Democrats would likely be having a hellacious night overall. Perhaps a night that could look like something like this:
🇺🇲 2024 National GE: @Harris_X_
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 47% (+9)
🟦 Biden 38%
—
President Biden
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 56%
—
• 538 Rank: #214 (1.3/3.0)
• 3,024 RV | Feb. 12-16 | ±1.8% pic.twitter.com/lZ7hkda3Gt
I'll leave you with this, out of one of the most important battleground states in the country -- and one where Republicans also got crushed in an important special election this month:
📊 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Emerson
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 20, 2024
Trump 45% (+2)
Biden 43%
—
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden 37%
RFK Jr 8%
West 2%
Stein 1%
—
Trump 49% (+9)
Harris 40%
—
Trump 48% (+15)
Newsom 33%
—
Senate
Casey (D-Inc) 49% (+10)
McCormick (R) 39%
—
R41/D40 | 1,000 RV | 2/14-16https://t.co/XtMPFvYQbl pic.twitter.com/j2H1fAcmpS
