West Virginia was always considered a top pick-up for Republicans in 2024, and with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announcing late last year that he was not running for reelection, he's even more likely to be replaced by a Republican. Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney of the state's 2nd Congressional District are currently vying for the Republican nomination. Although Justice may be the frontrunner, internal memos shared exclusively with Townhall show that Mooney's chances improve once West Virginia voters learn more about him, and Justice.
Last month, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey that included 500 likely Republican Primary voters in West Virginia, also providing an accompanying memo, which notes there is hope for him with room for improvement.
"Even though Jim Justice currently leads the race, there is a clear pathway to victory for Alex Mooney. GOP Primary voters like Justice, but they don’t love him – he is a generic Republican Governor in a Republican state. Once we are able to introduce Alex to voters and they learn about Justice’s troubling record, the race polarizes, and Alex takes the lead," the memo notes. "While Justice has received the Trump endorsement, Mooney’s 100% record of supporting President Trump gives him a 45%-37% lead in this matchup."
The memo points to Justice's lead of Mooney being at 56-22 percent. A WMOV Radio poll from last November has Justice leading with 56 percent to Mooney's 20 percent.
The memo notes that voters are less likely to support Justice when they hear of "troubling aspects of Justice's record," such as his "support for special rights for transgenders," as well as "siding with [President Joe] Biden on his massive multi trillion dollar spending package" and "Justice not paying his bills and failing to pay his employees."
Another memo especially touched upon financial concerns for Justice, which have involved legal battles in some cases. In addition to last week's coverage from the Wall Street Journal cited above, there's also coverage from Axios on May 31, 2023 noting "DOJ sues West Virginia governor's coal empire over unpaid federal penalties." The West Virginia Metro News reported on May 28, 2023 that "Order calls for garnishing governor’s wages, and Auditor’s Office says it will comply as it would for anybody."
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"It’s sad when desperate people do desperate things. Polls show Never Trump endorsed Alex Mooney, losing by nearly 40 points to Governor Jim Justice. West Virginians know Jim Justice and his unprecedented record of conservative accomplishments, which helped him win re-election by the largest vote percentage of any incumbent Republican gubernatorial candidate in state history. Alex Mooney is a loser in West Virginia; maybe he can try next time in Maryland," Roman Stauffer, Campaign Manager for Jim Justice for U.S. Senate told Townhall in response to criticisms about the governor's record.
But, the memo doesn't merely focus on Justice. The poll also presented voters with a positive image of Mooney, as his chances improved from there:
- 71 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney when learning about his "support for finishing President Trump’s border wall."
- 70 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney when learning about his support for "Stopping the Democrats’ stealing of elections."
- 68 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney when they learn of his "A" rating from the NRA.
The race tightens when voters are told positive things about Mooney's record, with Justice's lead going down to 48 percent to Mooney's 40 percent.
And, while former and potentially future President Donald Trump has endorsed Justice, voters give Mooney high marks when they learn he's voted with Trump 100 percent of the time.
Respondents were read a statement about how some/other "people say Alex Mooney has been one of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters and defenders in Congress and has been praised by Trump for doing a quote 'outstanding job in Congress,'" which 45 percent selected, while 37 percent selected the statement that said some/other "people say Jim Justice has Donald Trump’s full endorsement and can be counted on to be a strong supporter of the Trump agenda."
"Alex Mooney has a clear path to victory. Alex starts relatively well-known and liked. After just positive messaging to firm up Alex’s image, Alex not only adds 18-points to his ballot position, but Justice drops 12-points," the polling memo further lays out. "The fact Justice loses support just off positives, proves how soft Justice’s image and support is in the state. With just positives, the race is tight. Alex takes the lead once we highlight the troubling aspects of Justice’s record."
The poll was conducted January 15-17, with 500 likely Republican Primary voters in West Virginia and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percent.
That second memo goes in a deciedly positive direction. "Our new data shows that after voters learn of Jim Justice’s terrible record, we are winning 46%-42%. The undecideds also are likely to break our way, and as long as we have the resources to educate Republican primary voters about the real liberal Jim Justice, we would expect a roughly six point victory," it begins.
While Justice may have a polling advantage, the memo highlights Mooney's strengths with fundraising, including how Mooney has around $1.8 million for the fourth quarter.
Mooney has also earned the endorsements of a wide range of organizations and Republicans at the state and federal level, including the Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, Citizens United, American Conservative Union, and Gun Owners of America.
Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Mike Lee of Utah, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio have also endorsed Mooney, in addition to one-third of the Republican House of Delegate members in West Virginia.
That second memo highlights the Club for Growth in particular, noting that the group "has already spent $2 million of their $10 million pledge to help elect Congressman Mooney to the U.S. Senate."
Mooney has beaten tough odds before, including when redistricting pitted incumbent against incumbent, with Mooney facing former Rep. David McKinley in a primary.
"In 2022, the Republican congressional primary for WV-02 was one of the most watched races in the nation, with incumbents Alex Mooney and David McKinley pinned against each other after redistricting. Initial polling had McKinley winning by double digits," the memo noted. McKinley had also previously represented 65 percent of the district. Ultimately, Mooney won by almost 19 points in the 2022 Republican primary.
That second memo speaks to the McKinley-Justice connection to highlight how Mooney has beaten Justice before in a sense. "Mooney has already beaten Jim Justice once by defeating their hand-picked candidate David McKinley by a wide margin in his last race for Congress, which covers half of the state," it noted.
Whether Justice or Mooney wins the nomination, he is almost certainly going to become the next senator from West Virginia. The November Senate race is currently considered by forecasters as "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican."
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