For the past several months leading up to the November midterm elections, FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos have conducted polling with about 2,000 Americans to ask them what issues matter most to them. Time and again, inflation has remained the top issue, though the FiveThirtyEight write-ups from Holly Fuong and Geoffrey Skelley have often sought to make issues Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media care about seem to have more importance, especially when it comes to abortion.
Early last month, the write-up switched to exploring whether Democrats and Republicans had any common ground on gun control, which had also been the subject of their write-up in early June, following the shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, where 21 people were killed, including 19 children.
This time, Fuong and Skelley have combined the issues of climate change and immigration to see if there's any common ground. As is explained early on in the write-up, while they may not have much to do with each other, they're combined here because they "rank among the most partisan in the United States."
As has been noteworthy with FiveThirtyEight election issue write-ups, they certainly do seem to take a particular stance. Again, this was especially the case when it came to abortion following the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned Roe v. Wade, so much so that they changed their headline for the write-up.
In this write-up, Fuong and Skelley go the Don Lemon route in that they tie Hurricane Ian to climate change. "Record-setting summer temperatures, historic floods and devastating hurricanes have raised the stakes for the climate-change provisions contained within the Inflation Reduction Act," they write in their opening paragraph.
It's worth reminding though, as NOAA Acting Director Jamie Rohme did, that we can't "link climate change to any one event."
As the write-up lays out, the poll sought respondents' views on issues they may agree on based on provisions in the misnamed "Inflation Reduction Act." Fuong and Skelley casually point out, though, as an aside in parenthesis, that "we asked this without referring to the Inflation Reduction Act by name." Emphasis is mine. So, take that for what you will.
As Fuong and Skelley laid out:
Overall, more than 60 percent backed each of the three proposals, which included an increased emphasis on developing and using alternative energy sources, increased government regulation on corporations’ carbon emissions and giving tax credits to corporations that reduce carbon emissions. This included a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents, too, save for increasing government regulation of business’ carbon emissions — although a plurality of Republicans still backed this idea (47 percent). Despite decently strong support for these proposals, Americans were largely unfamiliar with the Inflation Reduction Act, with only 38 percent stating that they were “very” or “somewhat” familiar with it.5
We also found that, regardless of party, a respondent’s concern about climate change related to whether he or she had experienced unusual climate events. Republicans displayed a striking worry gap based on experience: Forty-six percent of those who had encountered extreme weather in the past five years said they were worried about climate change, compared with just 17 percent who hadn’t (a gap 8 percentage points larger than the one seen among Democrats, who already had a majority of respondents express worry about climate change independent of their experiences).6 A 61-year-old man from Florida who identified as a person of color and a Republican said he had recently experienced an extreme weather event, noting particular concern over “the obvious destruction of natural resources due to excessive heat, diminished water reserves and unusual number of heat domes impacting climate across multiple continents.”
When it comes to climate change, the write-up includes comments from those who point to simple actions for handling the issue:
Willie Yelverton, a 50-year-old Black man from Pennsylvania who identified as a Democrat, told us that even seemingly mundane changes would be important to reducing the impact of climate change. “[The government will] need to institute standard issue tax breaks for reusable materials,” he said. “There’ll have to be bans on goods that don’t have a path to be recycled and or reused going forward. Those are small line items, but it’s a very tough pill to swallow.”
As highlighted in a previous VIP piece, though, an AP-NORC poll conducted in late June showed that people doubt the impact their efforts will actually have.
Addressing a point that seems rather obvious, the write-up mentions that "Americans are split on immigration." They're also polarized. The write-up does acknowledge that "Republicans were more unified on the issue of illegal immigration." What's also true, but not mentioned here, is that President Joe Biden has a particularly low approval rating when it comes to his handling of the issue, and that polls consistently show Republicans are more trusted by voters on the issue.
Again, inflation was the top issue for respondents, with a majority, at 54 percent, still saying it was one of the most important issues. "Political extremism" jumped up to the second most important issue, followed by "crime or gun violence." In fourth and fifth place is climate change and immigration, with a chart pointing out that "20 percent of respondents said climate change is one of the most important issues facing the country."
Abortion looks to have dropped down to the eighth top issue, and is not mentioned anywhere in this report. On Wednesday, though, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy wrote a piece claiming that "Women Have Swung Toward Democrats Since The Dobbs Decision," with the subheadline even extending that swing to men.
It's worth pointing out, though, that polls, and other analyses, including from The Washington Post's Philip Bump, that such a swing appears to have been temporary, and Republican men are the most enthusiastic when it comes to voting these midterm elections.
Fuong and Skelley close their write-up by previewing how next month they will "take a closer look at which issues voters are thinking about the most when they cast their ballots." If we can take a wild guess, we're going to say it's inflation.
