Decision Desk HQ certainly gives a lot of weight to the power of the incumbency. In July, I covered how they regarded Sen. Ron Johnson's (R-WI) race to be "Solid Republican" at the time, despite Johnson being considered something of a vulnerable incumbent. Now that Johnson has his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, and polling has shown a close race, the race has changed slightly to "Likely Republican," but Johnson still has a 93.5 percent chance of winning.
Such a backdrop is crucial when it comes to Decision Desk HQ's recent update on the U.S. Senate race out of Nevada, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is considered even more vulnerable. The race is now regarded as a "Toss-Up," where Cortez Masto's percent of winning was down to 52.2 percent on Tuesday. She also has a strong Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, who is well known in Nevada, having previously served as the state's attorney general. He was at a 47.8 percent chance of winning.
Contrary to trends in the House and several other Senate races across the country, Nevada's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R) has shifted toward the Republican. Find out why in our latest model update: https://t.co/Hw7mxknE38 pic.twitter.com/h1qRsF1loS
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 27, 2022
In the most recent weekly Decision Desk HQ roundup video posted to YouTube, Dr. Liberty Vittert began by sharing, "In the Senate, we just have one toss-up race, completely, this week." She emphasized it's "super interesting, given its trajectory over the past month or two."
Dr. Vittert acknowledged that the incumbent senator "started out as our most really endangered, vulnerable Democratic senator." Beyond one poll which showed Cortez Masto "way up," which Vittert referred to as "an outlier," the race "has really stayed in the 'toss-up' range" and "is anyone's game."
The professor could hardly emphasize enough how worrisome this race is. "It's way, way our biggest move for this week," Vittert pointed out, adding the probability means, "I'd be very worried if I were her."
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The probability changed slightly on Wednesday, with Laxalt's chances going up to 48.1 percent with Cortez Masto's going down to 51.9 percent.
On September 21, Cortez Masto's chances were at 63.1 percent, but polls have not been kind to her, with Laxalt in the lead. About Laxalt's chances, Dr. Vittert offered that "whether he's actually leading, or there's just more polling, we're not sure, but he is certainly in the running."
As I covered earlier this month, an Emerson College poll showed Laxalt ahead of Cortez Masto, with 42 percent to her 41 percent.
There are other indications that the senator is in trouble. The average from RealClearPolitics is currently at +1.7 for Laxalt. Most polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight also give Laxalt a lead. All other forecasters also consider the race a "toss-up."
From a previous VIP article on Cortez Masto's vulnerability:
As I referenced in a VIP piece from June, Cortez Masto's vulnerability has been highlighted as being first on the list of vulnerable senators from RollCall in May, as well as in coverage from the Associated Press, The Washington Times, and with POLITICO, emphasizing her as a "vulnerable" incumbent.
Since then, Sen. Cortez Masto has found herself in even more unflattering news coverage, including NBC News' "'Our best opportunity': Republicans pose serious threat to Cortez Masto in Nevada." The Hill also warned that "Nevada could cost Democrats their Senate majority." Even The Washington Post fact-checker went after Sen. Masto last month, when it comes to how "Cortez Masto’s misfired attack on Laxalt’s opioid record," for which she received "Three Pinocchios," translating to "mostly false."
Since then, there has been even more unfavorable coverage toward this vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Yahoo! News published Andrew Romano's "How Nevada could doom Democrats' hopes of holding Senate" yesterday morning. Earlier this morning, ABC News did a segment on how "Nevada Republicans see a midterm opportunity in the longtime swing state." It's not merely Cortez Masto who is a vulnerable Democrat in Nevada. The gubernatorial race between Gov. Steve Sisolak and Republican opponent Joe Lombardo is also considered a "Toss-Up."
Cortez Masto's vulnerability has been highlighted in even more recent forecast lists, including Vox, which seeks to dismiss Laxalt as "a hardline election denier." Caroline Vakil, writing for The Hill on Monday about "The seven Senate seats most likely to flip," gives a special mention to this race. "Nevada is perhaps Republicans' best chance at flipping a Senate seat — and the state most likely to cost Democrats their majority," she writes.
That same day, Douglas Schoen and Zoe Young wrote an opinion column for The Hill on how Latinos are shifting right. Nevada gets a special mention:
In the highly competitive Senate races in Arizona and Nevada, Latino voters will comprise roughly one-fifth of the electorate this year. In both states, Latino support for Democratic candidates appears to be even weaker than 2020 levels, per FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of recent polling and exit poll data.
...
With respect to Nevada’s Senate race, the Democratic incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Adam Laxalt are locked in an even tighter contest. Though Cortez Masto leads among Latino voters by 19 points, this is 7 points narrower than Biden’s advantage with this group in 2020. Further, a large share of Latino voters in Nevada remain undecided, and undecided voters generally tend to split for the out-party in a midterm election.
It's also worth noting that while Decision Desk HQ regards the U.S. Senate race in Georgia as favoring Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, may still benefit from "Georgia's Republican partisan lean." A YouTube video also noted that "this race should be extremely competitive come November."
Warnock has similarly been highlighted for his vulnerability, and forecasters view this race as "Toss-Up," though Decision Desk HQ still has it as "Lean Democratic." RealClearPolitics currently has the race as particularly close, with +0.3 for Warnock.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is seeking his first full six-year term in the Senate. His opponent, former NFL star Herschel Walker (R), has trailed in polling and fundraising, but should benefit from Georgia's Republican partisan lean. Watch our preview here: https://t.co/iUqTP9jEwl pic.twitter.com/fdVN9WRkjK
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 28, 2022
